NFL TAPE
NFL · league went on 19.8% of competitive 4th downs — the math wanted 36.9% ·· NFL · Brian Daboll left 0.56 expected wins on the table in 2025 ·· NFL · DeMeco Ryans left 0.54 expected wins on the table in 2025 ·· NFL · Deshaun Watson carries 12.1% of the 2026 cap at 8th-percentile production ·· NFL · Brandon Aiyuk carries 4% of the 2026 cap at 4th-percentile production ·· NFL · Cowboys have already charged $250M to future caps ·· NFL · league went on 19.8% of competitive 4th downs — the math wanted 36.9% ·· NFL · Brian Daboll left 0.56 expected wins on the table in 2025 ·· NFL · DeMeco Ryans left 0.54 expected wins on the table in 2025 ·· NFL · Deshaun Watson carries 12.1% of the 2026 cap at 8th-percentile production ·· NFL · Brandon Aiyuk carries 4% of the 2026 cap at 4th-percentile production ·· NFL · Cowboys have already charged $250M to future caps ··
NFL · TWO SIDES, ONE STANDARD

The football vertical runs all year.

The GM side grades the league's decisions and prices its contracts — live now, all offseason. The betting and DFS side runs at game speed and arrives with September, gated by the same rule as every Arcline model: walk forward, beat the bar, or don't publish.

32 TEAMS BEFORE KICKOFF4 of 40 publishednext: NFC East verdict · 2026-07-17Latest: Eagles
SIDE ONE · THE GM SIDE
LIVE · YEAR-ROUND

Decisions graded. Contracts priced.

The Coaching Decision Index — every 4th-down and PAT call valued at the snap, outcome-blind, branch math shown — and the cap boards: veteran bargains, rookie windfalls, albatrosses, and the money teams have already borrowed from future caps.

DECISIONS GRADED
32,731
GO GAP
19.8% v 36.9%
CONTRACTS
daily refresh
Open the GM side
SIDE TWO · BETTING & DFS
SHIPS WITH SEPTEMBER

The weekly engine.

Model vs market on every game, player props, the BLITZ optimizer, and survivor strategy. The picks gate is closed until the model beats the closing-line bar out of sample — and when the test runs, you'll see it either way.

KICKOFF
September
PICKS GATE
closed until earned
EDGE FLOOR
The Standard
See what ships
FROM THE DESK

The NFL reads.

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