NFL TAPE
NFL · league went on 18.9% of competitive 4th downs — the math wanted 35.6%NFL · Brian Daboll left 0.54 expected wins on the table in 2025NFL · DeMeco Ryans left 0.52 expected wins on the table in 2025NFL · Deshaun Watson carries 12.1% of the 2026 cap at 8th-percentile productionNFL · Brandon Aiyuk carries 4% of the 2026 cap at 4th-percentile productionNFL · Texans have already charged $892M to future caps
NFL · TWO SIDES, ONE STANDARD

The football vertical runs all year.

The GM side grades the league's decisions and prices its contracts — live now, all offseason. The betting and DFS side runs at game speed and arrives with September — the DFS optimizer is already live — gated by the same rule as every Arcline model: walk forward, beat the bar, or don't publish.

32 TEAMS BEFORE KICKOFF35 of 40 publishednext: Cardinals · 2026-08-31Latest: NFC North
SIDE ONE · THE GM SIDE
LIVE · YEAR-ROUND

Decisions graded. Contracts priced.

The Coaching Decision Index — every 4th-down and PAT call valued at the snap, outcome-blind, branch math shown — and the cap boards: veteran bargains, rookie windfalls, albatrosses, and the money teams have already borrowed from future caps.

DECISIONS GRADED
32,737
GO GAP
18.9% v 35.6%
CONTRACTS
daily refresh
Open the GM side
SIDE TWO · BETTING & DFS
SHIPS WITH SEPTEMBER

The weekly engine.

Model vs market on every game, player props, the BLITZ optimizer, and survivor strategy. The spread and totals model was tested against six seasons of closing lines — and lost. The gate stays closed, and the report is published on the betting page, because the rule is show it either way.

KICKOFF
September
PICKS GATE
FAILED · 2020-2025 regular seasons (holdout — never touched in training or feature selection)
EDGE FLOOR
The Standard
See what ships
DFS OPTIMIZER · LIVEFull-slate lineup builds off the validated projection engine — DST slots market-anchored and labeled, never modeled. Preseason slates are live but low-stakes; the number that matters is Week 1, Sept 10.Open the optimizer →
FROM THE SEASON SIM10,000 seeded simulations off preseason priors — informational boards, not picks.Win-total board →Survivor board →
FROM THE DESK

The NFL reads.

ALL READS →