NFL · MARKET BOARD
Every matchup at a glance.
Team spreads, game totals, and market win probabilities. Open a matchup for the supporting detail.
Market overview · no bet selected
Official plays →Game-win forecasts use the de-vigged market consensus, with no independent model adjustment. A favorite is not automatically a recommended bet.
0 matchups · spreads are labeled by team
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UNIT MAP · 2025
Who actually moves the ball.
Opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Up is better offense; right is better defense.
TOP · OPP-ADJ NET
| #1 | Jaguars | +0.245 |
| #2 | Broncos | +0.203 |
| #3 | Seahawks | +0.160 |
| #4 | Patriots | +0.148 |
| #5 | Rams | +0.139 |
| #6 | Eagles | +0.136 |
| #7 | Bills | +0.121 |
| #8 | Colts | +0.119 |
BOTTOM · OPP-ADJ NET
| #25 | Giants | -0.092 |
| #26 | Cardinals | -0.098 |
| #27 | Cowboys | -0.131 |
| #28 | Raiders | -0.168 |
| #29 | Panthers | -0.188 |
| #30 | Titans | -0.208 |
| #31 | Dolphins | -0.214 |
| #32 | Jets | -0.333 |
MATCHUP DESK
NE @ SEA
MODEL VS MARKET · WEEKLY BOARD
OFF EPA / PLAY
NESEA
DEF STOP
NESEA
OPP-ADJ NET
NESEA
Weather, injury burden, and depth charts ship here only when the feeds are real — empty beats invented.
THE RECORD
% go % math
League go-rate on competitive 4th downs vs what the win-probability model wanted — free wins left on the table.
PLAYER PROPS · 12 STATS CALIBRATED
1073 prop lines live this week — edges measured against the journaled market.
Open props board →