SIM ENGINE · 10,000 RUNS

We price the game before the book does.

Golf, baseball, UFC and more. The engines simulate every event, we compare our price to the sportsbook's, and we only publish when the gap clears the floor — timestamped before lock, graded in public after, misses included.

Card ROI · money staked
FORMING · n=4
0.0%
Card win rate
FORMING · n=4
Card CLV · pts
FORMING · n=5
38
Markets priced today
MODEL DISTRIBUTION · SEEDED REDRAW
CHW @ HOU
Over 8.5 total runs
0 / 10,000 WORLDSREDRAWING…
ARCLINE60.1%
SPORTSBOOK IMPLIED48.6%
+11.5 PTS VS THE BOOK

The feed prices this total with its published NB r=6 (validated) model — this panel re-draws 10,000 seeded nights from that published distribution. Totals carry no pick flag; the totals floor is 10 pts.

MONDAY, AUGUST 31 · UPDATED 12:52 AM ET

Today's card

1 play made the official Card — real money, quarter-Kelly sizing, journaled before results exist. — out of 38 markets priced this morning.

THE CARD — OFFICIAL PLAYS · STAKES IN UNITS (1u = 1% OF BUDGET)
GLFS. Scheffler Top 20FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipMODEL85.6%BOOK76.7%+8.9 pts vs the bookSTAKE 7u · LOCKED
No leans over the floor right now. pts = how much higher our probability is than the sportsbook's, de-vigged.THE CARD & LEANS →
ALSO ON THE FEEDS — INFORMATIONAL, NOT PICKS
UFCPinto to winUFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse86.2% / 33.0%+53.2 pts vs the bookINFO
UFCCampbell to winUFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse64.6% / 25.9%+38.7 pts vs the bookINFO
CFBBowling Green Falcons -2.5Tarleton State Texans @ Bowling Green Falcons97.7% / 56.3%+22.2 pts vs the bookINFO
CFBTemple Owls -10.5Rhode Island Rams @ Temple Owls97.5% / 78.7%+9.5 pts vs the bookINFO
Divergences the UFC and college-football models publish against the market — noted, not recommended.
THE DAILY READ · ON X
The daily read lives on X

Picks, receipts, and the occasional bad beat owned out loud.

FOLLOW @ARCLINEANALYTIC →
CHOOSE YOUR SPORT

Six models live. Four in the lab.

EVERY STAT LINE BELOW IS LIVE FROM THE FEEDS
01GolfLIVEDFS projections · course fit · ownership leverage · fair pricesTOUR Championshipmodel live02MLBLIVERun environment · moneylines · totals · stack leverageHR FACTOR 1.38 · WIND 7 MPH OUT TO CFMODEL 10.3 vs LINE 9.0TOP BAT HENDERSON · 9.2 PROJDetroit Tigers ML+2.9 pts vs the book03UFCLIVE · INFO ONLYFight model vs market · style matchups · DFS projectionsParnasse v Hooker · Sep 5model live04WNBALIVEMinutes-first projections · injury bumps · floor/ceiling · optimizerBoard reprices next game daymodel live05NFLLIVEDecision Index · cap boards · surplus value · GM receiptsGo gap 18.9% vs 35.6%GM layer live06NCAAFLIVE · INFO ONLYSpread & total model vs market · blend divergence · informational1547 games priced · 2026record starts Week 1
IN THE LAB — NOT PUBLISHING PICKS YET
07NBALABProps · usage · pace · injuries · projectionsResearch only08NHLLABGoalie impact · shot volume · totals · player propsResearch only09F1LABQualifying · podium · constructor · race simulationResearch only10NASCARLABTrack history · driver form · finishing distributionResearch only
THE RESEARCH DESK

The latest reads.

Cards before the game, recaps after the grade — every piece traces to a published, timestamped number.

ALL ARTICLES →
THE ARCLINE STANDARD

Built to be audited.

The Card is where the money actually goes — a fixed weekly budget per sport, staked on our strongest edges, journaled before results exist and graded in public. The misses stay on the board — that's the point.

4
Card plays graded
0.0%
Card win rate
FORMING · n=4
ROI · money staked
FORMING · n=4
0
Plays deleted

Calibration is tracked across 686 priced games — every bucket published on The Record. ROI and CLV open as conclusions once their samples clear n=30.

AUDIT THE RECORD →
HOW IT WORKS

Four steps, every day, before the market can adjust.

1
Ingest

Market odds, injuries, weather, course and park context — pulled continuously and normalised to a single market view.

2
Simulate

Each sport's engine prices the event at the smallest unit it can model — a shot, a pitch, a round — 10,000 worlds where the sport calls for Monte Carlo.

3
Compare

Our probability against the de-vigged market. Anything under the floor — ≥3 pts golf outrights, ≥5 pts placements and sides, ≥10 pts totals — is thrown out.

4
Publish & grade

Timestamped before lock with the price on the board. Graded automatically after, win or lose, and added to the public record forever.

Stop guessing. Start pricing.

Every edge, every sport, every morning — plus the full graded history, so you can decide for yourself whether we're worth it.