INSIGHTS · THE RECORD

Accuracy, audited.

Every number below is regenerated nightly from the journals — validation on held-out history, the picks ledger with misses included, and calibration across every match, not just the ones we called. The rules are in The Standard; the raw files are in the journal.

SOCCER · WORLD CUP 2026 · GROUP STAGE

Every soccer projection: timestamped before kickoff, graded within hours of the whistle.

Pre-tournament walk-forward validation across 12 tournaments, 2010–2024 (n=577 matches). Live World Cup grading: 4 matches graded so far — every one journaled before kickoff.

PRE-TOURNAMENT VALIDATION · WALK-FORWARD · 12 TOURNAMENTS 2010–2024 · N=577

.973

Log-loss — model+market blend

.990

Log-loss — simple-Elo baseline

.093

Log-loss — flat baseline

Matches validated 2010–2024

Blend log-loss (lower is better)0.973

Simple-Elo log-loss0.990

Flat-baseline log-loss1.093

P(over 2.5): predicted / actual47.5% / 46.5%

Edge vs simple Elo: +0.0175 log-loss, 95% CI [−0.007, +0.040] — directionally ahead, not statistically significant.

THE PICKS — WORLD CUP

DATE	SLATE	THE CALL	RESULT	GRADE
2026-06-11	Mexico v South Africa	Mexico 75% · +7pp	FT 2-0	HIT
2026-06-12	Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina	Canada 61% · +8pp	FT 1-1	MISS
2026-06-27	Croatia v Ghana	Croatia 59% · +5pp	FT 2-1	HIT
2026-07-03	Colombia v Ghana	Colombia 70% · +7pp	FT 1-0	HIT

A pick is committed only when the model diverged from the market — a real edge, not just the favorite. 4 of 100 World Cup matches cleared that bar (4% pick rate): 3–1 on the picks. No totals pick has cleared the bar yet. Coin flips and matches where the model agreed with the book are not graded as picks — they live in the calibration above. How we define a pick → The Standard. Misses show in red, same weight as hits.

CALIBRATION LEDGER · EVERY MATCH, NOT JUST PICKS100 GRADED

DATE	MATCH	MODEL H/D/A	MARKET H/D/A	RESULT
2026-07-15	England v Argentina	33 / 31 / 35	36 / 33 / 31	1-2
2026-07-14	France v Spain	38 / 30 / 33	40 / 30 / 30	0-2
2026-07-11	Argentina v Switzerland	57 / 26 / 17	56 / 27 / 17	3-1
2026-07-11	Norway v England	23 / 26 / 51	23 / 26 / 51	1-2
2026-07-10	Spain v Belgium	60 / 24 / 16	59 / 24 / 17	2-1
2026-07-09	France v Morocco	59 / 25 / 16	60 / 25 / 15	2-0
2026-07-06	United States v Belgium	35 / 28 / 37	35 / 28 / 37	1-4
2026-07-06	Portugal v Spain	22 / 26 / 51	24 / 26 / 50	0-1
2026-07-05	Mexico v England	32 / 29 / 39	30 / 30 / 40	2-3
2026-07-05	Brazil v Norway	50 / 26 / 23	51 / 26 / 23	1-2
2026-07-04	Paraguay v France	7 / 15 / 78	6 / 14 / 81	0-1
2026-07-04	Canada v Morocco	19 / 27 / 54	19 / 28 / 53	0-3
2026-07-03	Colombia v Ghana	69 / 21 / 10	63 / 24 / 13	1-0
2026-07-03	Argentina v Cape Verde	85 / 11 / 4	82 / 13 / 5	3-2
2026-07-03	Australia v Egypt	33 / 32 / 35	28 / 33 / 38	1-1
2026-07-02	Switzerland v Algeria	47 / 29 / 24	46 / 29 / 24	2-0
2026-07-02	Portugal v Croatia	51 / 27 / 21	54 / 27 / 19	2-1
2026-07-02	Spain v Austria	72 / 18 / 9	72 / 18 / 10	3-0
2026-07-01	United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina	71 / 19 / 11	70 / 19 / 11	2-0
2026-07-01	Belgium v Senegal	44 / 29 / 27	43 / 29 / 27	3-2
2026-07-01	England v DR Congo	75 / 17 / 8	75 / 17 / 8	2-1
2026-06-30	Mexico v Ecuador	46 / 29 / 25	43 / 31 / 25	2-0
2026-06-30	France v Sweden	76 / 15 / 8	75 / 16 / 9	3-0
2026-06-30	Ivory Coast v Norway	24 / 27 / 49	26 / 27 / 47	1-2
2026-06-29	Netherlands v Morocco	43 / 30 / 27	45 / 30 / 25	1-1
2026-06-29	Germany v Paraguay	64 / 21 / 15	70 / 19 / 11	1-1
2026-06-29	Brazil v Japan	54 / 26 / 20	57 / 25 / 18	2-1
2026-06-28	South Africa v Canada	17 / 25 / 58	16 / 26 / 58	0-1
2026-06-27	Croatia v Ghana	59 / 26 / 15	54 / 29 / 17	2-1
2026-06-27	Panama v England	6 / 13 / 80	6 / 12 / 82	0-2
2026-06-27	DR Congo v Uzbekistan	48 / 25 / 27	55 / 23 / 22	3-1
2026-06-27	Colombia v Portugal	27 / 26 / 46	23 / 25 / 52	0-0
2026-06-27	Jordan v Argentina	5 / 11 / 84	6 / 13 / 81	1-3
2026-06-27	Algeria v Austria	26 / 38 / 36	25 / 42 / 34	3-3
2026-06-26	Senegal v Iraq	71 / 18 / 11	78 / 14 / 7	5-0
2026-06-26	Norway v France	21 / 23 / 56	20 / 22 / 57	1-4
2026-06-26	Uruguay v Spain	12 / 22 / 66	13 / 23 / 64	0-1
2026-06-26	Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia	37 / 28 / 35	39 / 28 / 33	0-0
2026-06-26	New Zealand v Belgium	7 / 15 / 78	6 / 13 / 80	1-5
2026-06-26	Egypt v Iran	36 / 34 / 30	39 / 36 / 25	1-1
2026-06-25	Tunisia v Netherlands	5 / 12 / 84	4 / 11 / 85	1-3
2026-06-25	Japan v Sweden	53 / 27 / 21	50 / 28 / 23	1-1
2026-06-25	Ecuador v Germany	25 / 25 / 50	26 / 24 / 50	2-1
2026-06-25	Curaçao v Ivory Coast	8 / 15 / 77	5 / 12 / 83	0-2
2026-06-25	Paraguay v Australia	34 / 39 / 28	33 / 43 / 24	0-0
2026-06-25	United States v Turkey	—	—	2-3
2026-06-24	Morocco v Haiti	80 / 14 / 6	80 / 14 / 6	4-2
2026-06-24	Scotland v Brazil	13 / 20 / 67	13 / 18 / 69	0-3
2026-06-24	Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar	61 / 22 / 17	66 / 20 / 14	3-1
2026-06-24	Canada v Switzerland	—	—	1-2
2026-06-24	South Africa v South Korea	16 / 24 / 61	17 / 24 / 59	1-0
2026-06-24	Mexico v Czech Republic	—	—	3-0
2026-06-23	Panama v Croatia	16 / 24 / 60	14 / 24 / 62	0-1
2026-06-23	England v Ghana	82 / 13 / 6	79 / 15 / 7	0-0
2026-06-23	Colombia v DR Congo	67 / 21 / 12	63 / 23 / 14	1-0
2026-06-23	Portugal v Uzbekistan	75 / 16 / 8	80 / 14 / 6	5-0
2026-06-22	Jordan v Algeria	18 / 24 / 58	16 / 23 / 61	1-2
2026-06-22	Argentina v Austria	63 / 23 / 14	60 / 24 / 15	2-0
2026-06-22	Norway v Senegal	45 / 27 / 28	41 / 28 / 31	3-2
2026-06-22	France v Iraq	88 / 9 / 3	88 / 9 / 3	3-0
2026-06-21	Uruguay v Cape Verde	67 / 21 / 11	66 / 23 / 12	2-2
2026-06-21	Spain v Saudi Arabia	88 / 9 / 3	87 / 9 / 4	4-0
2026-06-21	New Zealand v Egypt	20 / 25 / 56	17 / 24 / 59	1-3
2026-06-21	Belgium v Iran	61 / 23 / 16	67 / 21 / 13	0-0
2026-06-20	Tunisia v Japan	13 / 22 / 66	14 / 23 / 63	0-4
2026-06-20	Netherlands v Sweden	57 / 24 / 19	56 / 25 / 20	5-1
2026-06-20	Ecuador v Curaçao	86 / 10 / 4	87 / 9 / 4	0-0
2026-06-20	Germany v Ivory Coast	62 / 22 / 16	62 / 21 / 17	2-1
2026-06-19	Turkey v Paraguay	47 / 28 / 25	47 / 28 / 24	0-1
2026-06-19	United States v Australia	53 / 24 / 23	59 / 23 / 18	2-0
2026-06-19	Brazil v Haiti	85 / 10 / 5	87 / 9 / 4	3-0
2026-06-19	Scotland v Morocco	20 / 27 / 53	18 / 27 / 55	0-1
2026-06-18	Canada v Qatar	77 / 15 / 7	75 / 17 / 8	6-0
2026-06-18	Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina	63 / 22 / 14	61 / 23 / 16	4-1
2026-06-18	Mexico v South Korea	51 / 27 / 22	48 / 29 / 24	1-0
2026-06-18	Czech Republic v South Africa	55 / 25 / 20	54 / 25 / 20	1-1
2026-06-17	Ghana v Panama	35 / 27 / 38	44 / 28 / 28	1-0
2026-06-17	England v Croatia	54 / 26 / 20	56 / 25 / 19	4-2
2026-06-17	Uzbekistan v Colombia	11 / 21 / 68	11 / 20 / 69	1-3
2026-06-17	Portugal v DR Congo	75 / 17 / 8	75 / 17 / 9	1-1
2026-06-16	Austria v Jordan	67 / 20 / 13	72 / 18 / 10	3-1
2026-06-16	Argentina v Algeria	70 / 20 / 10	68 / 21 / 11	3-0
2026-06-16	Iraq v Norway	8 / 16 / 76	7 / 14 / 79	1-4
2026-06-16	France v Senegal	65 / 22 / 13	65 / 22 / 13	3-1
2026-06-15	Saudi Arabia v Uruguay	11 / 21 / 68	12 / 21 / 66	1-1
2026-06-15	Spain v Cape Verde	90 / 7 / 3	88 / 9 / 4	0-0
2026-06-15	Iran v New Zealand	54 / 27 / 20	51 / 28 / 22	2-2
2026-06-15	Belgium v Egypt	59 / 24 / 17	58 / 25 / 18	1-1
2026-06-14	Sweden v Tunisia	47 / 28 / 24	50 / 28 / 22	5-1
2026-06-14	Netherlands v Japan	45 / 27 / 27	47 / 27 / 26	2-2
2026-06-14	Ivory Coast v Ecuador	23 / 30 / 47	27 / 34 / 39	1-0
2026-06-14	Germany v Curaçao	91 / 7 / 2	93 / 5 / 2	7-1
2026-06-13	Australia v Turkey	20 / 26 / 54	19 / 25 / 56	2-0
2026-06-13	Haiti v Scotland	16 / 23 / 61	16 / 22 / 62	0-1
2026-06-13	Brazil v Morocco	54 / 26 / 20	58 / 25 / 17	1-1
2026-06-13	Qatar v Switzerland	6 / 14 / 80	7 / 15 / 78	1-1
2026-06-12	United States v Paraguay	45 / 27 / 28	48 / 28 / 24	4-1
2026-06-12	Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina	60 / 23 / 17	53 / 26 / 21	1-1
2026-06-11	South Korea v Czech Republic	38 / 30 / 32	36 / 31 / 33	2-1
2026-06-11	Mexico v South Africa	74 / 18 / 9	68 / 21 / 11	2-0

GOLF · THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP · JUL 17

Every golf projection: timestamped before lock, graded once official numbers post.

Walk-forward benchmark: model fit on data through 2024, then scored on 45 events in 2025 and 22 events in 2026 against real DraftKings totals.

WALK-FORWARD BENCHMARK · FIT ≤2024 · 45 EVENTS 2025 / 22 EVENTS 2026 · VS REAL DK TOTALS

.18

Proj MAE 2025 (DK pts) · vs. public baseline 21.22

.52

Proj MAE 2026 (DK pts) · vs. public baseline 20.72

.6%

GPP ROI 2025 (benchmark)*

.8%

GPP ROI 2026 (benchmark)*

GPP ROI 2025 / 2026*+92.6% / +122.8%

Ex-best-hit ROI 2025 / 2026*+79.2% / +31.9%

Point-max baseline ROI 2025 / 2026*−24.0% / +19.1%

Ownership MAE 2025 / 20262.23pp / 2.53pp

* Template payout curves; no duplicate-lineup modeling; heavy-tailed sample.

THE PICKS — GOLF

No qualifying edge graded yet — the golf record starts at the US Open, with the first outright or placement where the model beats the book by enough to commit.

Golf picks follow the same rule as soccer: an outright or placement is committed only when the model materially beats the book, and only on a real market — never a longshot the books price at the floor. How we define a pick → The Standard. Misses show in red, same weight as hits.