ARCLINE•ANALYTICS
TODAY'S CARD
MLB TAPE
MLB · tonight's board prices with the next run
MLB · RUN ENVIRONMENT MODEL · AUG 31

MLB.

We simulated every game on today's schedule and checked our win probabilities against the odds at 6 sportsbooks. Where our numbers beat the books, we say so — published and timestamped before the first pitch.

GAMES12 pricedPICKS0 liveHITTERS8 pricedHOME-RUN WEATHER BOOST1.38×
Tonight's BoardDFS Pool
HOME-RUN WEATHER · SD @ CIN6:40 PM ET
Home-run boost1.38×
Runs boost1.17×
Our total10.3
TEMP
95°F
WIND
7 mph out to CF
LINE
9.0
Great American Ball Park — park + weather add ~38% more homers tonight. Temperature, wind, and park geometry are priced into every total.
FROM THE DESK

The latest reads.

ALL READS →
MLBRECAPAUG 31
Yankee Stadium Swallowed Our Under Whole
Sunday went 0-1-1 on totals, nothing made the card, and the Bronx turned an 8-run line into a 17-run fireworks show. Gunnar Henderson went 4-for-4 with two home runs. It was that kind of day.
READ →
MLBCARDAUG 30
Royals Visit Cleveland and the Model Smells Runs
One total cleared our bar on a 14-game Sunday. The card is dark, the leans are real, and the DFS slate is loaded with Braves hitters facing a pitcher named Mason Adams. Here's the full read.
READ →
MLBRECAPAUG 30
Pete Crow-Armstrong Went Supernova and the Unders Held Up
Saturday's 17-game slate went 3-1 on totals, the card had no money down, and one Cubs outfielder put up a DFS line that belongs in a video game. Here's how it all graded out.
READ →
TONIGHT'S BOARD

Model vs market, game by game.

Detroit Tigers ML
DET @ MIN · 7:40 PM
+2.9 pts
47.5% / 44.6%Below our bar
GAMEDET @ MIN · 7:40 PM
US / THE BOOKS47.5% / 44.6%
EDGE+2.9 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
New York Yankees ML
NYY @ LAA · 9:38 PM
+2.2 pts
58.5% / 56.3%Below our bar
GAMENYY @ LAA · 9:38 PM
US / THE BOOKS58.5% / 56.3%
EDGE+2.2 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Atlanta Braves ML
SF @ ATL · 6:05 PM
+1.6 pts
60.7% / 59.1%Below our bar
GAMESF @ ATL · 6:05 PM
US / THE BOOKS60.7% / 59.1%
EDGE+1.6 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Boston Red Sox ML
SEA @ BOS · 6:45 PM
+1.6 pts
61.6% / 60.1%Below our bar
GAMESEA @ BOS · 6:45 PM
US / THE BOOKS61.6% / 60.1%
EDGE+1.6 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Oakland Athletics ML
OAK @ TEX · 8:05 PM
+1.6 pts
35.2% / 33.6%Below our bar
GAMEOAK @ TEX · 8:05 PM
US / THE BOOKS35.2% / 33.6%
EDGE+1.6 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Chicago White Sox ML
CHW @ HOU · 8:10 PM
+1.3 pts
46.5% / 45.2%Below our bar
GAMECHW @ HOU · 8:10 PM
US / THE BOOKS46.5% / 45.2%
EDGE+1.3 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Cincinnati Reds ML
SD @ CIN · 6:40 PM
+0.9 pts
43.6% / 42.6%Below our bar
GAMESD @ CIN · 6:40 PM
US / THE BOOKS43.6% / 42.6%
EDGE+0.9 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Washington Nationals ML
MIA @ WSH · 6:45 PM
+0.9 pts
48.3% / 47.4%Below our bar
GAMEMIA @ WSH · 6:45 PM
US / THE BOOKS48.3% / 47.4%
EDGE+0.9 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Baltimore Orioles ML
BAL @ COL · 8:40 PM
+0.9 pts
57.1% / 56.2%Below our bar
GAMEBAL @ COL · 8:40 PM
US / THE BOOKS57.1% / 56.2%
EDGE+0.9 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Milwaukee Brewers ML
MIL @ CHC · 7:40 PM
+0.6 pts
49.6% / 49.0%Below our bar
GAMEMIL @ CHC · 7:40 PM
US / THE BOOKS49.6% / 49.0%
EDGE+0.6 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Arizona Diamondbacks ML
PHI @ ARI · 9:40 PM
+0.6 pts
47.4% / 46.8%Below our bar
GAMEPHI @ ARI · 9:40 PM
US / THE BOOKS47.4% / 46.8%
EDGE+0.6 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Tampa Bay Rays ML
NYM @ TB · 6:40 PM
+0.0 pts
60.4% / 60.4%Below our bar
GAMENYM @ TB · 6:40 PM
US / THE BOOKS60.4% / 60.4%
EDGE+0.0 pts
CONFIDENCELOW
Us / books are our published number and the sportsbooks' average with their cut removed — the same two numbers the public record grades. pts = how much higher our odds are than the sportsbook's. Games under the bar stay visible — that's the point.
STACK BOARD

Which offenses tonight.

#STACKTOP-5 BLOCKTOP-5 PROJHR BOOSTTEAM WIN%PRICED
01BAL vs COLHenderson · Alonso · Holliday · Taveras · Cowser41.61.10×57.1%9 hitters
02CHW vs HOUMurakami · Montgomery · Antonacci · Vargas · Montgomery40.61.25×46.5%pre-DK
03PHI vs ARISchwarber · Harper · Turner · Stott · Marsh39.91.03×52.6%9 hitters
04TEX vs OAKLangford · Seager · Burger · Duran · Nimmo39.41.00×64.8%9 hitters
05HOU vs CHWPena · Alvarez · Paredes · Varsho · Altuve39.41.25×53.5%9 hitters
06ATL vs SFOlson · Jr. · Baldwin · II · Albies39.41.08×60.7%pre-DK
07NYY vs LAARice · Jr. · Grisham · Jr. · Jones39.41.27×58.5%9 hitters
08TB vs NYMCaminero · Aranda · Diaz · Simpson · Hicks38.91.00×60.4%pre-DK
09CHC vs MILCrow-Armstrong · Suzuki · Bregman · Busch · Happ38.61.35×50.4%9 hitters
10MIL vs CHCBauers · Turang · Chourio · Yelich · Lara38.31.35×49.6%9 hitters
Top-5 block = the team's five best projected hitters from tonight's run. HR boost is how much the park and weather help home runs — the number firms up closer to first pitch. Win% is our published, timestamped number. Correlation is the point: runs cluster, and a stack buys the whole rally.
DFS · TONIGHT'S POOL

The hitters the model wants.

#HITTERTEAMPROJSALARYVALUE
01Gunnar HendersonBAL9.2$6.2k
1.5
02Corbin CarrollARI9.2$5.4k
1.7
03Kyle SchwarberPHI9.2$6.3k
1.5
04Pete AlonsoBAL9.0$6.7k
1.3
05Wyatt LangfordTEX8.8$4.8k
1.8
06Bryce HarperPHI8.6$5.8k
1.5
07Jeremy PenaHOU8.4$5.0k
1.7
08Yordan AlvarezHOU8.4$6.5k
1.3
HOME-RUN WEATHER · BY GAME
SD @ CIN1.38×
MIL @ CHC1.35×
NYY @ LAA1.27×
DET @ MIN1.26×
CHW @ HOU1.25×
OPEN THE STACK OPTIMIZER →
THE CARD · MLB

The record, misses included.

The Card is the official record — staked plays only, from the $25 daily MLB budget. Most days nothing sizes past the floor, and that restraint is the product.
Staked MLB plays land here as they settle. Every edge we track — the leans, no money attached — is graded on The Record.
MLB RESEARCH

The reasoning behind the board.

THE STANDARDALWAYS ON
What counts as a pick — the edge floor, in writing
Methodology
MODEL vs MARKETEVERY DAY
The full MLB board — every game published and timestamped before first pitch
Live tool
PARK & WEATHERUPDATED HOURLY
Air density, wind vectors, and park factors by game
Live tool

Every park priced. Weather and all.

Our win probabilities, physics-based totals, and a daily fantasy pool from one nightly run — published and timestamped before first pitch, graded after the last out.

Tonight's BoardDFS Pool