Monday was a light slate — three games — and the scoring mostly stayed home. We tracked one totals lean with a material edge and went 0-1 on it. No moneylines cleared our bar, so the ML record sits at 0-0-0. The totals ledger closes the day 0-1. Small sample, real loss, nothing to smooth over.

The game environment was the defining story. Pitchers held the upper hand across the board, and the one matchup where we expected more offense delivered considerably less. That's the job some nights.

No money was officially down on Monday. Nothing from the moneyline side cleared five percentage points over the market, so the card is empty. That's the standard, and it held.

The Leans

One edge made the tracked board on totals: the MIN @ SF Over 8.25. The final was MIN 2, SF 5 — seven combined runs against a line of 8.25. That's a clean loss. The lean was grounded in a legitimate model edge, and the pitching was simply better than projected. We track it, we own it, and we move on.

No moneyline leans were published Monday. The board reflects the day accurately.

The DFS slate scored 89 players, with 42 matched back to our projections. Here's how the top of the board looked:

• Pete Alonso (Baltimore Orioles) — 2-for-4, 30.0 DK points. Our projection: 7.56. At $5,700, he was the slate's best return at the top of the price range.
• Drew Gilbert (San Francisco Giants) — 3-for-4, 26.0 DK points. Our projection: 7.35. At $3,200, that's exceptional value — more on him below.
• Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles) — 3-for-4, 25.0 DK points. Our projection: 7.58. At $5,100, Henderson delivered close to what you'd hope for at that salary.
• Ben Malgeri (Detroit Tigers) — 2-for-4, 23.0 DK points. Our projection: 7.35. At $2,700, Malgeri was among the sharpest value plays on the slate.
• Keider Montero (Detroit Tigers) — 4.0 IP, 5 K, 0 ER, 21.8 DK points. No projection or salary on file for Montero, so we can't grade the call — but the line speaks for itself.

Where We Hit

Alonso, Gilbert, and Henderson were the three clearest model-to-outcome wins. All three came in well above their projected DK floors — Alonso at nearly 4x his projection, Gilbert and Henderson similarly. The Orioles pairing in particular was a useful construction: two high-projection bats at different salary tiers both delivered.

Gilbert is worth a note. At $3,200, a 3-for-4 game producing 26 DK points is the kind of outcome that swings GPP lineups. The model had him at 7.35 projected points — that's a reasonable floor estimate for a cheap bat, not a ceiling projection. The ceiling showed up.

Where We Missed

DJ Herz (Washington Nationals) is the honest entry here. Our projection was 13.46 DK points. He finished with 4.8 — 4.0 IP, 4 K, 4 earned runs. The gap between 13.46 and 4.8 is significant, and the line tells the story: four earned runs in four innings ends a projection in a hurry. We'll look at whether the ERA environment or opponent context was the driver before the next Herz appearance.

The MIN @ SF total is a useful reminder that a seven-run game against an 8.25 line isn't a near-miss — it's a comfortable loss. The edge was real on paper; the game didn't cooperate. That's variance doing its job, not a reason to second-guess the threshold.

The DFS side was genuinely encouraging. Alonso, Henderson, and Gilbert all significantly outperformed their projections, and Malgeri added a strong return at minimal salary. The Herz miss was meaningful, and starter projection variance is something we keep a close eye on — four earned runs in four innings is the kind of outcome that can flip a DFS slate quickly, regardless of the strikeout projection going in.

Three games is a short day. The record reflects it: one lean graded, one loss, no official card plays. The discipline of not forcing a moneyline bet when nothing cleared the bar is its own data point — and Tuesday's slate will be larger.