MODEL TAPE
Tarleton State Texans @ Bowling Green Falcons · Bowling Green Falcons +22.2pp vs market · LEANRhode Island Rams @ Temple Owls · Temple Owls +9.5pp vs market · LEANIdaho State Bengals @ Utah State Aggies · Utah State Aggies +9.2pp vs market · LEANSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits @ Northwestern Wildcats · Northwestern Wildcats +9.1pp vs market · LEANLiberty Flames @ James Madison Dukes · James Madison Dukes +6.9pp vs market · LEAN
NCAAF · CFB ENGINE · 2026

College Football.

A walk-forward Elo built only on results already played, priced against the de-vigged cross-book consensus. Divergences are tracked leans, graded in public — the Saturday Card stakes only the qualifying real-market edges. Week 1 kicks off Thu, Sep 3.

GAMES PRICED56VALIDATIONvalidatedRECORD84 gradedUPDATED21m ago
THE WIDEST DIVERGENCE
Liberty Flames @ James Madison Dukes
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET
James Madison Dukes
+6.9pp
blend 76% / market 69%
A lean, not a pick — leans grade in public. The Saturday Card stakes only qualifying real-market edges (≥4 books), journaled Saturday morning.
THE BOARD

The next three weeks, priced.

335 more gameson the schedule in this window without a posted line — they appear as markets open. FCS-involved leans are labeled; the model's weakest-calibrated slice never headlines this page.
THU, SEP 3 · 5 GAMES
KICKOFFMATCHUPSPREADTOTALMODELMARKETBLENDEDGE
7:00 PM ETAkron Zips @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons-24.548.582%93%90%
7:00 PM ETMerrimack Warriors @ Delaware Blue Hens-28.556.398%97%97%
7:00 PM ETWest Georgia Wolves @ Kennesaw State Owls-23.551.598%95%96%
8:00 PM ETColorado Buffaloes @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets-6.550.576%68%70%
9:00 PM ETUAB Blazers @ Illinois Fighting Illini-28.55687%95%94%
FRI, SEP 4 · 5 GAMES
KICKOFFMATCHUPSPREADTOTALMODELMARKETBLENDEDGE
6:30 PM ETSan José State Spartans @ Eastern Michigan Eagles-3.554.561%61%61%
7:00 PM ETNorth Carolina A&T Aggies @ Georgia State Panthers-28.563.596%95%95%
8:00 PM ETToledo Rockets @ Michigan State Spartans-1049.545%78%69%
9:00 PM ETMiami Hurricanes @ Stanford Cardinal+24.547.518%7%9%
9:00 PM ETFresno State Bulldogs @ USC Trojans-22.551.577%93%89%
SAT, SEP 5 · 40 GAMES
KICKOFFMATCHUPSPREADTOTALMODELMARKETBLENDEDGE
12:00 PM ETTarleton State Texans @ Bowling Green Falcons-2.547.598%56%78%+22.2pp LEAN · FCS
2:00 PM ETRhode Island Rams @ Temple Owls-10.551.597%79%88%+9.5pp LEAN · FCS
7:00 PM ETIdaho State Bengals @ Utah State Aggies-12.86298%81%90%+9.2pp LEAN · FCS
8:00 PM ETSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits @ Northwestern Wildcats-1346.599%83%92%+9.1pp LEAN · FCS
12:00 PM ETLiberty Flames @ James Madison Dukes-752.588%69%76%+6.9pp LEAN
12:00 PM ETOregon State Beavers @ Houston Cougars-20.55183%91%89%
12:00 PM ETCoastal Carolina Chanticleers @ West Virginia Mountaineers-21.556.565%91%86%
12:00 PM ETEast Carolina Pirates @ Alabama Crimson Tide-28.55481%96%93%
12:00 PM ETLafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies-1957.599%90%95%
12:00 PM ETOhio Bobcats @ Nebraska Cornhuskers-23.547.548%93%86%
12:30 PM ETMiami (OH) RedHawks @ Pittsburgh Panthers-16.549.569%85%81%
12:45 PM ETKent State Golden Flashes @ South Carolina Gamecocks-36.55487%97%95%
1:00 PM ETSoutheast Missouri State Redhawks @ Iowa State Cyclones-30.552.599%97%98%
1:00 PM ETDuquesne Dukes @ Air Force Falcons-28.857.898%96%97%
3:30 PM ETBoston College Eagles @ Cincinnati Bearcats-7.551.571%72%72%
3:30 PM ETTulane Green Wave @ Duke Blue Devils-9.55159%75%71%
3:30 PM ETBaylor Bears @ Auburn Tigers-75962%71%68%
3:30 PM ETUT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros @ UTSA Roadrunners-29.559.599%96%97%
3:30 PM ETBoise State Broncos @ Oregon Ducks-24.55284%94%91%
3:30 PM ETMarshall Thundering Herd @ Penn State Nittany Lions-24.554.582%93%91%
3:30 PM ETTexas State Bobcats @ Texas Longhorns-30.56085%96%94%
3:45 PM ETOklahoma State Cowboys @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane+1459.558%18%28%
6:00 PM ETWyoming Cowboys @ Colorado State Rams-3.547.558%60%59%
7:00 PM ETArkansas State Red Wolves @ Memphis Tigers-9.553.574%75%75%
7:00 PM ETFlorida International Panthers @ South Florida Bulls-13.55479%81%80%
7:00 PM ETMurray State Racers @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders-20.859.596%91%93%
7:00 PM ETEastern Kentucky Colonels @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks-20.554.599%91%95%
7:00 PM ETAustin Peay Governors @ Vanderbilt Commodores-30.36199%97%98%
7:00 PM ETCharleston Southern Buccaneers @ Georgia Southern Eagles-2751.599%95%97%
7:30 PM ETClemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers-10.55158%77%72%
7:30 PM ETWestern Michigan Broncos @ Michigan Wolverines-27.548.579%94%91%
7:30 PM ETUL Monroe Warhawks @ Mississippi State Bulldogs-28.555.578%95%92%
7:45 PM ETFlorida Atlantic Owls @ Florida Gators-2759.582%94%92%
8:00 PM ETLamar Cardinals @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns-20.54999%91%95%
9:00 PM ETMercyhurst Lakers @ New Mexico State Aggies-28.551.597%96%96%
9:30 PM ETNorthern Arizona Lumberjacks @ Arizona Wildcats-33.557.599%97%98%
10:00 PM ETUNLV Rebels @ Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors+358.350%42%45%
10:00 PM ETCentral Michigan Chippewas @ New Mexico Lobos-10.546.574%78%77%
10:30 PM ETUCLA Bruins @ California Golden Bears+1.553.563%47%52%
10:30 PM ETWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Nevada Wolf Pack+2.552.537%44%42%
SUN, SEP 6 · 3 GAMES
KICKOFFMATCHUPSPREADTOTALMODELMARKETBLENDEDGE
4:00 PM ETWashington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies-23.550.577%92%89%
7:30 PM ETLouisville Cardinals @ Ole Miss Rebels-6.555.577%69%71%
7:30 PM ETWisconsin Badgers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish-20.547.590%91%91%
MON, SEP 7 · 1 GAME
KICKOFFMATCHUPSPREADTOTALMODELMARKETBLENDEDGE
7:30 PM ETSMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles+353.531%41%38%
SAT, SEP 12 · 2 GAMES
KICKOFFMATCHUPSPREADTOTALMODELMARKETBLENDEDGE
12:00 PM ETOklahoma Sooners @ Michigan Wolverines-1.545.562%51%54%
7:30 PM ETOhio State Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns-1.547.550%52%51%
schedule feed Neither feed carries venue data, so the listed home team gets full home field even for neutral-site kickoff games — those rows overstate the home side slightly. MODEL / MARKET / BLEND are home-win probabilities.
HOW THE NUMBER IS BUILT

Results in, price out.

THE MODEL
cfb-elo-v0 (informational) — Walk-forward Elo over every result since 2015 (regressed 20% toward the mean each offseason — the fraction was fit out-of-sample, as was the treatment of non-FBS opponents; the generic non-FBS opponent rating carries over between seasons without regression), home field estimated from the data (77 Elo points). Market: cross-book consensus moneylines, de-vigged per book and medianed across ≥3 books, blended 70/30 market-over-model — the blend weight is a market-efficiency prior, not a fitted number. Validated out-of-sample: replaying 2021-2025 from preseason priors only, game logloss 0.5684 beat flat 50/50 (0.6931), home climatology (0.6603) and a no-margin Elo (0.5779); win-total MAE 1.959 beat prior-year wins (2.188) and flat .500 (2.27).
The published number is a blend — 70% de-vigged market consensus, 30% model — so the board never claims to outsmart the market on its own.
VALIDATION · 2021-2025
Validated out-of-sample: replaying 2021-2025 from preseason priors only, game logloss 0.5684 beat flat 50/50 (0.6931), home climatology (0.6603) and a no-margin Elo (0.5779); win-total MAE 1.959 beat prior-year wins (2.188) and flat .500 (2.27).
TRACKED LEANS, GRADED
84 journaled games graded against finals. The published blend: 62.5% winners, logloss 0.5456 (n=16). The market itself: 75%, logloss 0.4802 — the bar the blend has to clear.
Board edges are tracked LEANS — Elo-blend divergences from the consensus beyond the house thresholds (≥55% and ≥5 points), graded in public, no money attached. The staked record is The Card: a fixed Saturday budget (size internal), top qualifying edges, journaled Saturday morning, graded in units.
FROM THE DESK

The college football reads.

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The record starts Week 1.

Every figure on this page comes from the live feed — and from the first game of the season, every call is published before kickoff and graded in public, misses included. Player projections and the optimizer activate the moment DraftKings posts CFB slates.