NFL · SURVIVOR · WEEK 1TODAY'S CARD

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NFL · SURVIVOR POOL · 2026

The split is the game.

One team a week, no reuse, ties eliminate, and a modeled field of thousands chasing the same favorites. The win probabilities are the market's — we claim no edge over them. The product is the optimization: which favorite to spend, and when.

POOLa ~14,000-entry $100 survivor poolMODELED POT$1,260,000FIELD SIM10,000 worldsUPDATED9m ago

The win-total board The gate report

WEEK 1 · THE PICK

LAC 81.8%

Los Angeles Chargers (vs Arizona Cardinals) — LAC is the market's biggest Week 1 favorite (81.8% after the tie adjustment) and the pool-EV play — no trade-off this week.

PICK DEADLINE

Sun, Sep 13, 12:59 PM ET

WEEK 1

The pick, in numbers.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS · vs ARI

81.8%

tie-adjusted win probability — the consensus moneyline, de-vigged, minus the 0.22% tie haircut

9.5%EST.

estimated share of the field on LAC this week — modeled, not observed

WHY THIS SPEND

LAC is the market's biggest Week 1 favorite (81.8% after the tie adjustment) and the pool-EV play — no trade-off this week.

Modeled EV of the full remaining path: $2,956.9 per $100 entryEST. · 0.76% to still be alive after Week 18.

THE ENDGAME

When the pool forces two picks.

After Week 13 the pool turns conditional: survive above a threshold and the next week demands TWO picks, both outright winners. These are the trigger rates from 10,000 simulated worlds of the field — estimated, and they move as the season reprices.

WEEK 14

0.0%EST.

chance of a double-pick week (triggers above 200 alive)

~34 alive enteringEST.

WEEK 15

0.2%EST.

chance of a double-pick week (triggers above 100 alive)

~21 alive enteringEST.

WEEK 16

0.4%EST.

chance of a double-pick week (triggers above 50 alive)

~12 alive enteringEST.

WEEK 17

1.3%EST.

chance of a double-pick week (triggers above 25 alive)

~7 alive enteringEST.

WEEK 18

6.0%EST.

chance of a double-pick week (triggers above 10 alive)

~4 alive enteringEST.

WEEKS REMAINING

The optimal path from here.

WEEK	PICK(S)	OPPONENT	WEEK SURVIVAL	CUMULATIVE
1	Los Angeles Chargers	ARI	82.1%	82.1%
2	Seattle Seahawks	ARI	80.6%	66.2%
3	San Francisco 49ers	ARI	76.5%	50.6%
4	Baltimore Ravens	TEN	80.1%	40.5%
5	New England Patriots	LV	84.2%	34.1%
6	Los Angeles Rams	ARI	81.9%	27.9%
7	Houston Texans	NYG	78.1%	21.8%
8	Cincinnati Bengals	TEN	70.2%	15.3%
9	Philadelphia Eagles	NYG	73.4%	11.2%
10	Buffalo Bills	NYJ	79.6%	8.95%
11	Denver Broncos	LV	86.3%	7.72%
12	Jacksonville Jaguars	TEN	79.4%	6.13%
13	Minnesota Vikings	CAR	73.4%	4.50%
14 ×2	Detroit Lions + Chicago Bears	TEN · MIA	78.7%	3.54%
15 ×2	Green Bay Packers + Indianapolis Colts	MIA · TEN	70.1%	2.48%
16 ×2	Pittsburgh Steelers + Las Vegas Raiders	CAR · TEN	72.2%	1.79%
17 ×2	Dallas Cowboys + Atlanta Falcons	NYG · NO	62.0%	1.11%
18 ×2	Kansas City Chiefs + Washington Commanders	LV · DAL	68.5%	0.76%

Weeks marked ×2 are planned as two-pick weeks in the worlds where the field sim says the trigger fires — the survival shown already weighs that probability. Current week is the consensus moneyline; future weeks are the season sim's priors and re-read as the market posts each week.

THE PORTFOLIO

5 entries, one sheet.

ENTRY SHEET · WEEK 1

ENTRY 1Los Angeles Chargers$2,956.9EST.

ENTRY 2Jacksonville Jaguars$2,741.35EST.

ENTRY 3Detroit Lions$2,219.3EST.

ENTRY 4Las Vegas Raiders$2,611.2EST.

ENTRY 5Philadelphia Eagles$2,279.85EST.

Entry 1 takes the max-EV path; each later entry opens on a different team than every earlier entry — the biggest shared risk in a portfolio is the same Week 1 sweat.

THE POT

$1,260,000

$100 × 14,000 entries × 0.9 after the rake — modeled

Last season 10 survivors split a $1.23M pot — ~$123K each from 13,652 entries. The split is the game.

Modeled winners: ~2.8 · expected split $334,599EST.

THE RECORD

Journaled, then graded.

WEEK 1Los Angeles ChargersPENDING

Picks are journaled before the deadline, frozen, and graded off the final scores — a tie grades as a loss.

THE METHOD

What is market, what is modeled.

Win probabilities are the market's, not ours: the current week is the de-vigged consensus moneyline (each market normalized proportionally, then averaged; source: our pre-game odds journal), and future weeks are the season sim's published priors. We claim no edge over these numbers — the product is the optimization built on top of them. A tie eliminates (picks must win outright), so every win probability is multiplied by (1 − 0.22%): 15 ties in 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. Field pick percentages and pool outcomes are MODELED ESTIMATES, not observed data: 10,000 seeded simulations of a ~14,000-entry pool where each modeled entry picks proportional to win probability^3 × a brand tier, with no team reuse. Double-pick weeks trigger per the pool's published thresholds (>200 alive entering Week 14, >100 alive entering Week 15, >50 alive entering Week 16, >25 alive entering Week 17, >10 alive entering Week 18), including the endgame split rules (no 2-0 in a double week → 1-1 entries split; all 0-2 → everyone who picked splits). Pool EV = survival probability × expected share of the $1,260,000 modeled pot ($100 × 14,000 entries × 90%), computed over the same simulated worlds so the correlation between our picks and the field's survival is priced in.

15 ties in 6,967 regular-season games since 1999 (0.22%). A tie eliminates, so every win probability below takes that haircut. Field popularity is estimated — win probability^3 × brand tier, no observed pick data. The pool is described generically — a ~14,000-entry $100 survivor pool — and no win probability on this page is an Arcline edge claim.

Survivor is a season-long allocation problem. The board is the map.

The win-total board carries the same sim by team — means, bands, division and playoff odds — and the gate report explains why no weekly NFL picks with an edge claim publish here.

The win-total board The gate report