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UFC TAPE
UFC · Jared Cannonier — our number 47%, market 25% ·· UFC · Kamaru Usman — our number 54%, market 33% ·· UFC · Jared Cannonier — our number 47%, market 25% ·· UFC · Kamaru Usman — our number 54%, market 33% ··
UFC · FIGHT CARD

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Every bout priced from fighter history — a rating model over 8,700 UFC fights, per-fighter striking and grappling rates, and the live multi-book market. Divergences are our number vs the price, shown honestly: the UFC model is v0 and bouts with debutants say LOW DATA.

CARD14 boutsDATE2026-07-18MODELELO v0 · informationalLOW DATA11 bouts
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THE HEADLINE DISAGREEMENT
Jared Cannonier
vs Christian Leroy Duncan
OUR NUMBER
47%
THE MARKET
25%
GAP
+22.2pp
FINISH RATE
64%
Not a pick — the v0 model is unvalidated against markets. It is exactly what the header says: a disagreement, published before the fights.
THE BOARD
BOUTMARKETMODEL / MKTEDGECONFSTATUS
Kamaru Usman v Dricus Du Plessis · MAINKamaru Usman Win54% / 33%+21.2ppHIGHPRE-LOCK
Jose Miguel Delgado v Austin BashiAustin Bashi Win51% / ——LOWLOW DATA
Seokhyeon Ko v Jean-Paul LebosnoyaniSeokhyeon Ko Win53% / 65%—LOWLOW DATA
Christian Leroy Duncan v Jared CannonierChristian Leroy Duncan Win53% / 75%-22.2ppHIGHPRE-LOCK
Marc-Andre Barriault v Brad TavaresBrad Tavares Win59% / ——MEDPRE-LOCK
Felipe Franco v Levi Rodrigues Jr.Levi Rodrigues Jr. Win52% / 59%—LOWLOW DATA
Mitch Ramirez v Chase HooperChase Hooper Win61% / 75%—LOWLOW DATA
Jacobe Smith v Kevin HollandKevin Holland Win52% / 41%—LOWLOW DATA
Damien Anderson v Ezra ElliottDamien Anderson Win50% / 56%—LOWLOW DATA
Fatima Kline v Tabatha RicciTabatha Ricci Win51% / 21%—LOWLOW DATA
Alberto Montes v Tommy McMillenAlberto Montes Win50% / 41%—LOWLOW DATA
Stewart Nicoll v Alden CoriaAlden Coria Win62% / 88%—LOWLOW DATA
Alvin Hines v RJ HarrisRJ Harris Win52% / 44%—LOWLOW DATA
Dione Barbosa v Anna MelisanoDione Barbosa Win53% / 82%—LOWLOW DATA
Model % vs de-vig market median across books. LOW DATA = a debutant on the bout — the model is blind there and says so rather than guessing.
STYLE SNAPSHOT · VOLUME vs POWER vs GRAPPLING
Kamaru Usman v Dricus Du Plessis
Usman3.7 str/min · 1.6 TD/15 · 31% fin
Plessis3.8 str/min · 1.0 TD/15 · 67% fin
Jose Miguel Delgado v Austin Bashi
Delgado6.7 str/min · 0.4 TD/15 · 45% fin
Bashi2.9 str/min · 2.3 TD/15 · 45% fin
Seokhyeon Ko v Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Ko3.4 str/min · 3.2 TD/15 · 45% fin
Lebosnoyani4.4 str/min · 1.8 TD/15 · 45% fin
Christian Leroy Duncan v Jared Cannonier
Duncan4.1 str/min · 0.4 TD/15 · 71% fin
Cannonier3.9 str/min · 1.3 TD/15 · 64% fin
Marc-Andre Barriault v Brad Tavares
Barriault4.2 str/min · 1.1 TD/15 · 67% fin
Tavares3.6 str/min · 0.6 TD/15 · 13% fin
Felipe Franco v Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Franco3.6 str/min · 1.0 TD/15 · 45% fin
Jr.4.4 str/min · 1.4 TD/15 · 45% fin
FROM THE DESK

The fight-card reads.

ALL READS →
UFCFIGHT CARDJUL 14
The Model Thinks Usman Has More Left Than Vegas Does
Dricus defends, the market says easily. Our number disagrees — and that gap between 54% and 33% is the most honest conversation this card wants to have.
READ →
UFCFIGHT CARDJUL 10
The Model Doesn't Care About the Narrative
McGregor vs. Holloway 2 is the main event the market loves. Our numbers have a different opinion — on that fight and several others. Here's the full card, honestly.
READ →

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Six fighters, $50K — projections from real striking and grappling rates, correlation priced so even both-siding a bout is a choice the math informs, and the market carrying the bouts our model can't see yet.

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