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GOLF TAPE

GOLF · J. Rose Top 20 +27.6pp ·· GOLF · J. Niemann Top 20 +26.2pp ·· GOLF · S. Burns Top 20 +19.3pp ·· GOLF · H. English Top 20 +19.0pp ·· GOLF · M. Fitzpatrick Top 20 +17.9pp ·· GOLF · E. Cole Top 20 +16.9pp ·· GOLF · J. Rose Top 20 +27.6pp ·· GOLF · J. Niemann Top 20 +26.2pp ·· GOLF · S. Burns Top 20 +19.3pp ·· GOLF · H. English Top 20 +19.0pp ·· GOLF · M. Fitzpatrick Top 20 +17.9pp ·· GOLF · E. Cole Top 20 +16.9pp ··

GOLF · CADDIE ENGINE · THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

Golf.

The full The Open Championship field simulated 10,000 times — win, top-5, top-10, and top-20 probabilities priced against 7 books, with fair prices and the edges published before lock.

EVENTThe Open ChampionshipPRICED12+ playersBOOKS7EDGE PLAYS20 live

View The Board Open Optimizer

WIN BOARD · MODELFAIR PRICE

S. Scheffler9.5% +956

R. McIlroy5.3% +1769

T. Fleetwood3.8% +2511

M. Fitzpatrick3.8% +2560

J. Rahm3.3% +2967

10,000 FIELD SIMS · CONVERGED

FROM THE DESK

The latest reads.

ALL READS →

GOLFRECAPJUL 16

The Open Championship — Round 1

Jackson Suber leads at -5 through 1. Where our pre-event reads stand — original lines, live prices, and a clear status on every one. Nothing's graded until Sunday.

READ →

GOLFPICKS FRAMEWORKJUL 13

Birkdale Bites Back — Who's Actually Built for This

Royal Birkdale is back on the Open rota and the model has opinions. The chalk is crowded, the course-fit grades are unforgiving, and there's real leverage hiding in the sub-$7K range. Here's how to play it.

READ →

GOLFCOURSE PREVIEWJUL 13

Birkdale Is Back, and the Model Says the Course Wins

Royal Birkdale is the most demanding links test in the rotation — a place that exposes pretenders and rewards a very specific kind of ball-striker. Here's what the course actually asks for, who fits it, and where the model finds its edges.

READ →

THE PROJECTION BOARD

Every player. Every market. One model run.

#	PLAYER	TOP 20 %	FAIR	MARKET	EDGE	BEST PRICE
01	S. Scheffler	74.2%	-288	81.8%	-7.6pp	-400 PB
02	R. McIlroy	57.6%	-136	42.7%	+14.8pp	+150 PB
03	T. Fleetwood	56.1%	-128	57.8%	-1.7pp	-130 PB
04	M. Fitzpatrick	51.2%	-105	33.3%	+17.9pp	+210 SKY
05	J. Rahm	48.3%	+107	52.4%	-4.0pp	+115 PB
06	L. Aberg	40.4%	+148	32.3%	+8.1pp	+250 SKY
07	X. Schauffele	44.9%	+123	34.7%	+10.1pp	+200 FD
08	C. Young	35.2%	+184	63.6%	-28.5pp	-149 UNI
09	V. Hovland	39.9%	+151	34.5%	+5.4pp	+210 SKY
10	J. Rose	32.9%	+204	5.3%	+27.6pp	+2200 FD
11	C. Gotterup	32.5%	+208	42.0%	-9.5pp	+163 SKY
12	J. Thomas	34.3%	+191	29.4%	+4.9pp	+275 SKY

TODAY'S GOLF BOARD

Published edges, pre-lock.

EVENT	MARKET	MODEL / MKT	EDGE	CONF	STATUS
The Open Championship	J. Rose Top 20	32.9% / 5.3%	+27.6pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	J. Niemann Top 20	28.6% / 2.4%	+26.2pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	S. Burns Top 20	33.6% / 14.3%	+19.3pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	H. English Top 20	26.7% / 7.7%	+19.0pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	M. Fitzpatrick Top 20	51.2% / 33.3%	+17.9pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	E. Cole Top 20	18.0% / 1.1%	+16.9pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	J. Rose Top 10	19.2% / 2.4%	+16.7pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	B. Harman Top 20	19.6% / 3.9%	+15.7pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	W. Clark Top 20	31.8% / 16.7%	+15.2pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	R. McIlroy Top 20	57.6% / 42.7%	+14.8pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	M. Greyserman Top 20	15.7% / 1.1%	+14.6pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	H. Hall Top 20	15.5% / 1.3%	+14.2pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	J. Day Top 20	18.5% / 5.3%	+13.3pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	J. Spieth Top 20	20.8% / 7.7%	+13.1pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	M. McCarty Top 20	14.4% / 1.4%	+12.9pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	G. Woodland Top 20	14.0% / 1.3%	+12.7pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	M. Kim Top 20	16.0% / 3.5%	+12.6pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	J. Niemann Top 10	13.6% / 1.0%	+12.6pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	H. Matsuyama Top 20	24.2% / 11.8%	+12.4pp	HIGH	LOCKED
The Open Championship	M. Fitzpatrick Top 10	32.2% / 20.0%	+12.2pp	HIGH	LOCKED

ODDS SCAN STATUS

EventThe Open Championship

Books surveyed7

Markets pricedWin · Top 5 · Top 10 · Top 20

Last scan12:27 AM ET

Event statusIN PLAY

Model probabilities vs the de-vig consensus across every book we track. Only edges clearing ≥5pp are published as plays.

CADDIE · DFS OPTIMIZER

Build the lineup, not just the picks.

The same 10,000-run simulation that prices this board powers CADDIE — cash and GPP lineup builds with ownership leverage, exposure caps, and Monte Carlo ceiling targets for the live The Open Championship slate.

SIMS PER SLATE

10K

ROSTER

6 GOLFERS

CAP

$50K

OPEN CADDIE →

WHAT IT OPTIMIZES

Contest-EV objective, not raw points

Ownership leverage vs the field

Exposure caps across builds

Late-swap aware on live slates