Every fixture's blended probabilities run through 10,000 full-tournament simulations — group tables, the knockout bracket, and trophy odds, all from one model run. Played matches use the real result; the record is graded in the journal.
MATCHES
104
TEAMS
48
PLAYED · GRADED
100
KNOCKOUT
31
FAVORITE HIT RATE
68%
THE TROPHY · TOP 5OF 10,000 RUNS
BOARD REFRESHED JUL 16 · NOT BETTING ADVICE
THE READ
What the model actually says.
RUNNING 10,000 TOURNAMENTS… 0%
THE SLATE
Every match, kickoff order.
Jun 11
THU · FT
🇲🇽 Mexico v South Africa 🇿🇦75 / 17 / 8FT 2–0 ✓
🇰🇷 South Korea v Czechia 🇨🇿38 / 30 / 32FT 2–1 ✓
Jun 12
FRI · FT
🇨🇦 Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦61 / 23 / 16FT 1–1 ✗
🇺🇸 USA v Paraguay 🇵🇾45 / 28 / 28FT 4–1 ✓
Jun 13
SAT · FT
🇶🇦 Qatar v Switzerland 🇨🇭6 / 14 / 80FT 1–1 ✗
🇧🇷 Brazil v Morocco 🇲🇦54 / 26 / 20FT 1–1 ✗
🇭🇹 Haiti v Scotland 🏴16 / 23 / 61FT 0–1 ✓
🇦🇺 Australia v Türkiye 🇹🇷20 / 26 / 54FT 2–0 ✗
Jun 14
SUN · FT
🇩🇪 Germany v Curaçao 🇨🇼91 / 6 / 2FT 7–1 ✓
🇳🇱 Netherlands v Japan 🇯🇵45 / 28 / 27FT 2–2 ✗
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador 🇪🇨22 / 31 / 47FT 1–0 ✗
🇸🇪 Sweden v Tunisia 🇹🇳47 / 28 / 24FT 5–1 ✓
Jun 15
MON · FT
🇪🇸 Spain v Cabo Verde 🇨🇻91 / 7 / 2FT 0–0 ✗
🇧🇪 Belgium v Egypt 🇪🇬59 / 24 / 17FT 1–1 ✗
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia v Uruguay 🇺🇾11 / 21 / 68FT 1–1 ✗
🇮🇷 Iran v New Zealand 🇳🇿54 / 27 / 20FT 2–2 ✗
Jun 16
TUE · FT
🇫🇷 France v Senegal 🇸🇳65 / 22 / 13FT 3–1 ✓
🇮🇶 Iraq v Norway 🇳🇴8 / 16 / 76FT 1–4 ✓
🇦🇷 Argentina v Algeria 🇩🇿70 / 20 / 10FT 3–0 ✓
🇦🇹 Austria v Jordan 🇯🇴67 / 20 / 13FT 3–1 ✓
Jun 17
WED · FT
🇵🇹 Portugal v DR Congo 🇨🇩75 / 17 / 8FT 1–1 ✗
🏴 England v Croatia 🇭🇷54 / 26 / 20FT 4–2 ✓
🇬🇭 Ghana v Panama 🇵🇦34 / 28 / 38FT 1–0 ✗
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan v Colombia 🇨🇴11 / 21 / 68FT 1–3 ✓
Jun 18
THU · FT
🇨🇿 Czechia v South Africa 🇿🇦55 / 25 / 20FT 1–1 ✗
🇨🇭 Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦63 / 23 / 14FT 4–1 ✓
🇨🇦 Canada v Qatar 🇶🇦78 / 15 / 7FT 6–0 ✓
🇲🇽 Mexico v South Korea 🇰🇷51 / 27 / 22FT 1–0 ✓
Jun 19
FRI · FT
🇺🇸 USA v Australia 🇦🇺54 / 24 / 22FT 2–0 ✓
🏴 Scotland v Morocco 🇲🇦20 / 27 / 53FT 0–1 ✓
🇧🇷 Brazil v Haiti 🇭🇹86 / 10 / 5FT 3–0 ✓
🇹🇷 Türkiye v Paraguay 🇵🇾47 / 28 / 25FT 0–1 ✗
Jun 20
SAT · FT
🇳🇱 Netherlands v Sweden 🇸🇪57 / 24 / 19FT 5–1 ✓
🇩🇪 Germany v Côte d'Ivoire 🇨🇮62 / 22 / 16FT 2–1 ✓
🇪🇨 Ecuador v Curaçao 🇨🇼86 / 10 / 4FT 0–0 ✗
🇹🇳 Tunisia v Japan 🇯🇵12 / 22 / 66FT 0–4 ✓
Jun 21
SUN · FT
🇪🇸 Spain v Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦88 / 9 / 3FT 4–0 ✓
🇧🇪 Belgium v Iran 🇮🇷61 / 23 / 16FT 0–0 ✗
🇺🇾 Uruguay v Cabo Verde 🇨🇻68 / 21 / 11FT 2–2 ✗
🇳🇿 New Zealand v Egypt 🇪🇬19 / 25 / 56FT 1–3 ✓
Jun 22
MON · FT
🇦🇷 Argentina v Austria 🇦🇹63 / 23 / 14FT 2–0 ✓
🇫🇷 France v Iraq 🇮🇶88 / 9 / 3FT 3–0 ✓
🇳🇴 Norway v Senegal 🇸🇳45 / 27 / 28FT 3–2 ✓
🇯🇴 Jordan v Algeria 🇩🇿18 / 24 / 58FT 1–2 ✓
Jun 23
TUE · FT
🇵🇹 Portugal v Uzbekistan 🇺🇿76 / 16 / 8FT 5–0 ✓
🏴 England v Ghana 🇬🇭82 / 13 / 5FT 0–0 ✗
🇵🇦 Panama v Croatia 🇭🇷16 / 24 / 60FT 0–1 ✓
🇨🇴 Colombia v DR Congo 🇨🇩67 / 21 / 12FT 1–0 ✓
Jun 24
WED · FT
🇨🇭 Switzerland v Canada 🇨🇦36 / 26 / 37FT 2–1 ✗
🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar 🇶🇦61 / 22 / 17FT 3–1 ✓
🏴 Scotland v Brazil 🇧🇷13 / 20 / 67FT 0–3 ✓
🇲🇦 Morocco v Haiti 🇭🇹80 / 14 / 6FT 4–2 ✓
🇨🇿 Czechia v Mexico 🇲🇽9 / 16 / 75FT 0–3 ✓
🇿🇦 South Africa v South Korea 🇰🇷16 / 24 / 61FT 1–0 ✗
Jun 25
THU · FT
🇪🇨 Ecuador v Germany 🇩🇪25 / 25 / 50FT 2–1 ✗
🇨🇼 Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire 🇨🇮7 / 14 / 78FT 0–2 ✓
🇹🇳 Tunisia v Netherlands 🇳🇱5 / 11 / 84FT 1–3 ✓
🇯🇵 Japan v Sweden 🇸🇪53 / 27 / 20FT 1–1 ✗
🇵🇾 Paraguay v Australia 🇦🇺34 / 38 / 28FT 0–0 ✓
🇹🇷 Türkiye v USA 🇺🇸24 / 25 / 52FT 3–2 ✗
Jun 26
FRI · FT
🇳🇴 Norway v France 🇫🇷21 / 23 / 56FT 1–4 ✓
🇸🇳 Senegal v Iraq 🇮🇶72 / 18 / 10FT 5–0 ✓
🇺🇾 Uruguay v Spain 🇪🇸12 / 22 / 66FT 0–1 ✓
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde v Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦37 / 28 / 35FT 0–0 ✗
🇪🇬 Egypt v Iran 🇮🇷36 / 34 / 30FT 1–1 ✗
🇳🇿 New Zealand v Belgium 🇧🇪7 / 15 / 78FT 1–5 ✓
Jun 27
SAT · FT
🇵🇦 Panama v England 🏴6 / 13 / 81FT 0–2 ✓
🇭🇷 Croatia v Ghana 🇬🇭59 / 26 / 15FT 2–1 ✓
🇨🇴 Colombia v Portugal 🇵🇹27 / 27 / 46FT 0–0 ✗
🇨🇩 DR Congo v Uzbekistan 🇺🇿48 / 25 / 27FT 3–1 ✓
🇯🇴 Jordan v Argentina 🇦🇷5 / 11 / 84FT 1–3 ✓
🇩🇿 Algeria v Austria 🇦🇹27 / 37 / 36FT 3–3 ✓
Jun 28
SUN · FT
🇿🇦 South Africa v Canada 🇨🇦17 / 26 / 58FT 0–1 ✓
Jun 29
MON · FT
🇧🇷 Brazil v Japan 🇯🇵54 / 27 / 20FT 2–1 ✓
🇩🇪 Germany v Paraguay 🇵🇾65 / 21 / 14FT 1–1 ✗
🇳🇱 Netherlands v Morocco 🇲🇦41 / 30 / 28FT 1–1 ✗
Jun 30
TUE · FT
🇫🇷 France v Sweden 🇸🇪76 / 16 / 8FT 3–0 ✓
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire v Norway 🇳🇴25 / 27 / 48FT 1–2 ✓
🇲🇽 Mexico v Ecuador 🇪🇨45 / 30 / 25FT 2–0 ✓
Jul 1
WED · FT
🇧🇪 Belgium v Senegal 🇸🇳45 / 29 / 26FT 3–2 ✓
🏴 England v DR Congo 🇨🇩75 / 18 / 7FT 2–1 ✓
🇺🇸 USA v Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦70 / 19 / 11FT 2–0 ✓
Jul 2
THU · FT
🇵🇹 Portugal v Croatia 🇭🇷53 / 27 / 21FT 2–1 ✓
🇪🇸 Spain v Austria 🇦🇹73 / 18 / 9FT 3–0 ✓
🇨🇭 Switzerland v Algeria 🇩🇿48 / 29 / 23FT 2–0 ✓
Jul 3
FRI · FT
🇦🇷 Argentina v Cabo Verde 🇨🇻88 / 9 / 3FT 3–2 ✓
🇦🇺 Australia v Egypt 🇪🇬31 / 32 / 36FT 1–1 ✗
🇨🇴 Colombia v Ghana 🇬🇭73 / 19 / 8FT 1–0 ✓
Jul 4
SAT · FT
🇨🇦 Canada v Morocco 🇲🇦19 / 27 / 54FT 0–3 ✓
🇵🇾 Paraguay v France 🇫🇷6 / 15 / 79FT 0–1 ✓
Jul 5
SUN · FT
🇧🇷 Brazil v Norway 🇳🇴51 / 26 / 23FT 1–2 ✗
🇲🇽 Mexico v England 🏴32 / 29 / 39FT 2–3 ✓
Jul 6
MON
🇦🇷 Argentina v Egypt 🇪🇬74 / 18 / 8ROUND OF 16
🇵🇹 Portugal v Spain 🇪🇸22 / 26 / 51FT 0–1 ✓
🇨🇭 Switzerland v Colombia 🇨🇴28 / 30 / 42ROUND OF 16
🇺🇸 USA v Belgium 🇧🇪37 / 27 / 36FT 1–4 ✗
Jul 9
THU · FT
🇫🇷 France v Morocco 🇲🇦60 / 25 / 16FT 2–0 ✓
Jul 10
FRI · FT
🇪🇸 Spain v Belgium 🇧🇪60 / 24 / 16FT 2–1 ✓
Jul 11
SAT · FT
🇦🇷 Argentina v Switzerland 🇨🇭58 / 26 / 16FT 3–1 ✓
🇳🇴 Norway v England 🏴24 / 26 / 49FT 1–2 ✓
Jul 14
TUE · FT
🇫🇷 France v Spain 🇪🇸38 / 30 / 33FT 0–2 ✗
Jul 15
WED · FT
🏴 England v Argentina 🇦🇷33 / 32 / 35FT 1–2 ✓
Jul 18
SAT
🇫🇷 France v England 🏴48 / 26 / 26THIRD PLACE