// MEXICO V SOUTH AFRICA · FULL TIME 2-0
Model: Mexico 75% · Draw 17% · South Africa 8%
Market: Mexico ~68% · published edge +7pp
Result: Mexico 2–0 South Africa → HIT
Market: Mexico ~68% · published edge +7pp
Result: Mexico 2–0 South Africa → HIT
RECAP · SOCCER · 2026-06-12
Mexico v South Africa 2-0 — the model graded
Mexico 2, South Africa 0. Mexico was a committed pick at 75% — a +7pp edge over the market — and it landed. A HIT.
Arcline Analytics
00 · RESULT
01 · THE GRADE
This was a committed pick: the model had Mexico at 75% against a market nearer 68% — a +7pp edge, clear of the bar. Mexico delivered. A 75% side winning is the expected outcome roughly 7 times in 10 — file it as the model doing its job, not a victory lap.
The total stayed under 2.5 (2 goals); the books had over at 44% — no totals edge, so no totals pick.
02 · ON THE RECORD
A pick is a committed edge against the market, not the favourite — most matches don't clear it. What counts as a pick, and the full graded record, live on The Standard.