RECAP · GOLF · 2026-07-05

John Deere Classic — Round 3

Lucas Glover leads at -16 through 3. Where our pre-event reads stand — original lines, live prices, and a clear status on every one. Nothing's graded until Sunday.

Arcline Analytics

00 · THE READ

// JOHN DEERE CLASSIC · THROUGH ROUND 3

8 tracked, 2 clearly live, 1 in range, 3 fading, 2 done.

Lucas Glover sits on top at -16. The board below is the honest state of every read we made before the week — what we got, where they are, and what the bet implies now. None of it is graded; a tournament bet isn't decided until the trophy is.

01 · THE ROUND

// THE THIRD ROUND

Round performance, separate from the bet — who moved and what moved them.

> STRONGRickie Fowler (T12, -11) — went low for a 63 in the third round. The putter carried it (putting +3.33).

> STRONGErik Van Rooyen (T19, -10) — went low for a 64 in the third round. The putter carried it (putting +2.97).

> STRONGDoug Ghim (6, -14) — went low for a 65 in the third round. The putter carried it (putting +1.34).

> SOFTJ.T. Poston (T55, -5) — left it out there with a 71 in the third round. The putter let him down (putting -1.56).

> SOFTEric Cole (T64, -4) — left it out there with a 70 in the third round. Approach let him down (approach -2.18).

02 · THE CUT

THE CUT6 of the 8 names we tracked pre-event are through to the weekend. The casualties are logged in the board below.

03 · STATUS BOARD

// EVERY READ · ORIGINAL LINE → STATUS

Pre-event fair price, current position, live implied price, status. Live finish probabilities update through the weekend.

Player	Pre-event (fair)	Now	Implied now	Status
Chris Gotterup	outright +2112 · T10 +227	T12 (-11)	win 1.7% · T10 44%	LIVE
Ben Griffin	outright +2640 · T10 +194	T27 (-9)	win 0.2% · T10 19%	IN RANGE
Michael Thorbjornsen	outright +2903 · T10 +345	CUT (-2)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	DEAD
Jackson Koivun	outright +3115 · T10 +284	CUT (+1)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	DEAD
Keith Mitchell	outright +3348 · T10 +288	T55 (-5)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	FADING
Jacob Bridgeman	outright +3536 · T10 +333	T37 (-8)	win 0.0% · T10 8%	FADING
Keegan Bradley	outright +3550 · T10 +318	T55 (-5)	win 0.0% · T10 1%	FADING
Rickie Fowler	outright +4487 · T10 +405	T12 (-11)	win 0.9% · T10 36%	LIVE

> LIVEChris Gotterup — pre-event outright +2112 (4.5%), T20 +116 (46%). Through 3 rounds: T12, -11. The putter carried it (putting +2.77). The case is intact — within reach with the in-play model now at 1.7% to win, against a pre-event fair price of +2112.

> DEADMichael Thorbjornsen — pre-event outright +2903 (3.3%), T20 +181 (36%). Through 3 rounds: CUT, -2. Done for the week — the outright and the weekend placements are off the board.

> DEADJackson Koivun — pre-event outright +3115 (3.1%), T20 +141 (42%). Through 3 rounds: CUT, +1. Done for the week — the outright and the weekend placements are off the board.

04 · ROUND 4 LOOKAHEAD

// ROUND 4 · WHERE THE VALUE SITS

Not graded lines — the names where the in-play model and the leaderboard disagree most, the spots worth a weekend position.

Lucas Glover (T1) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 85%
Lee Hodges (T1) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 85%
Ben Kohles (T3) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 84%
Zac Blair (T3) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 80%

99 · THE CLOSE

The weekend case is intact.

Every line above gets its final grade on Sunday, win or lose, in the same font. Until then it's a status, not a scorecard.

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