RECAP · SOCCER · 2026-06-13

Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 — the model graded

Canada 1, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1. Canada was a committed pick at 61% — a +8pp edge over the market — and it drew. A MISS, same weight as a hit.

Arcline Analytics
00 · RESULT
// CANADA V BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA · FULL TIME 1-1
Model: Canada 61% · Draw 24% · Bosnia and Herzegovina 16%
Market: Canada ~53% · published edge +8pp
Result: Canada 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina → MISS
01 · THE GRADE

This was a committed pick: the model had Canada at 61% against a market nearer 53% — a +8pp edge, clear of the bar. The match went the other way. Sides at that probability fail to win about 4 times in 10; this was one of them. It counts the same as a hit, and it is on the board.

The total stayed under 2.5 (2 goals); the books had over at 42% — no totals edge, so no totals pick.

02 · ON THE RECORD

A pick is a committed edge against the market, not the favourite — most matches don't clear it, and the misses go on the board next to the hits. What counts as a pick, and the full graded record, live on The Standard.