MLB · MODEL vs MARKET · 2026-08-30
Journaled pre-pitch.
Every game on the slate: the model's number, the de-vig market consensus, and the blend the journal actually grades. Written before first pitch, never edited after.
Probabilities are the home side's; FAIR is the no-vig American price the blend implies — if the book is paying more than FAIR on the side we like, that's the trade. Validation: 556 of 30 games graded — the model earns its public record at 30, not before.
THE MATCHUPS · NAMED STARTERS · MODEL TEAM TOTALS
MIA @ WSH12:15 PM ET · Nationals Park
MIA50.5% · λ 4.65
Tyler Phillips RHP
5 IP · 4.6 K · 2.53 ER exp
4 Esteury Ruiz7.8
1 Heriberto Hernandez7.6
2 Otto Lopez7.4
3 Agustin Ramirez7.3
WSH49.5% · λ 4.91
Andrew Alvarez LHP
5 IP · 4.3 K · 2.29 ER exp
1 CJ Abrams8.6
4 Daylen Lile7.7
2 Abimelec Ortiz7.5
3 Andres Chaparro7.3
MODEL TOTAL 9.7 vs 9.0EDGE WSH +0.7pp
COL @ ATL1:35 PM ET · Truist Park
COL32.5% · λ 4.01
Mason Adams RHP
5 IP · 4.7 K · 3.04 ER exp
3 Hunter Goodman▼7.3
4 TJ Rumfield▲7.3
ATL67.5% · λ 5.94
Tyler Mahle RHP
6 IP · 5.6 K · 2.29 ER exp
3 Matt Olson▲9.7
2 Ronald Acuna Jr.▼9.6
1 Drake Baldwin▲9.2
4 Michael Harris II▲8.7
MODEL TOTAL 9.9 vs 8.5EDGE ATL +0.9ppHR AIR 0.97x6 MPH IN FROM CF
BOS @ NYY1:35 PM ET · Yankee Stadium
BOS51.2% · λ 3.92
Ranger Suarez LHP
5 IP · 5.4 K · 2.01 ER exp
3 Wilyer Abreu▲7.4
1 Roman Anthony▲7.3
4 Willson Contreras▼6.9
2 Ceddanne Rafaela▼6.5
NYY48.9% · λ 3.80
Will Warren RHP
5 IP · 4.8 K · 1.96 ER exp
1 Paul Goldschmidt▲6.7
2 Cody Bellinger▼6.5
3 Heliot Ramos▲6.3
MODEL TOTAL 8.6 vs 8.0EDGE NYY +1.1ppHR AIR 1.31x12 MPH OUT TO CF
SEA @ TOR1:37 PM ET · Rogers Centre
SEA51.3% · λ 3.76
Logan Gilbert RHP
6 IP · 5.8 K · 2.64 ER exp
2 Julio Rodriguez7.5
1 Randy Arozarena7.4
3 Dominic Canzone7.4
6 Cal Raleigh7.2
TOR48.7% · λ 4.41
Max Scherzer RHP
4 IP · 4.0 K · 1.70 ER exp
6 George Springer7.6
1 Kazuma Okamoto7.5
4 Alejandro Kirk7.2
3 Nathan Lukes7.0
MODEL TOTAL 8.4 vs 8.0EDGE TOR +4.4ppHR AIR 1.08x6 MPH OUT TO CF
LAD @ DET1:40 PM ET · Comerica Park
LAD57.4% · λ 3.97
Tyler Glasnow RHP
6 IP · 7.1 K · 2.38 ER exp
1 Shohei Ohtani▼8.2
4 Freddie Freeman▼6.9
3 Mookie Betts▲6.9
2 Tommy Edman▲6.4
DET42.6% · λ 4.14
Framber Valdez LHP
6 IP · 5.1 K · 2.42 ER exp
3 Kevin McGonigle▲7.4
2 Colt Keith▲6.7
1 Gleyber Torres▼6.6
4 Dillon Dingler▼6.5
MODEL TOTAL 7.9 vs 7.5EDGE DET +3.0ppHR AIR 0.91x6 MPH CROSSING TO LF
KC @ CLE1:40 PM ET · Progressive Field
KC39.9% · λ 4.00
Seth Lugo RHP
5 IP · 4.6 K · 2.43 ER exp
2 Bobby Witt Jr.▲8.1
1 Carter Jensen▼6.3
CLE60.1% · λ 4.38
Parker Messick LHP
6 IP · 5.7 K · 2.57 ER exp
3 Jose Ramirez▲9.1
2 Chase DeLauter▲7.6
4 Jo Adell▼7.0
1 Steven Kwan▲7.0
MODEL TOTAL 9.1 vs 7.5EDGE KC +2.9ppHR AIR 1.14x5 MPH CROSSING TO RF
SD @ TB1:40 PM ET · Tropicana Field
SD41.6% · λ 3.99
Robbie Ray LHP
6 IP · 5.1 K · 2.45 ER exp
2 Fernando Tatis Jr.7.7
1 Manny Machado7.2
5 Jackson Merrill6.6
3 Ty France6.6
TB58.4% · λ 4.27
Casey Legumina RHP
3 IP · 2.3 K · 1.16 ER exp
3 Junior Caminero8.3
1 Yandy Diaz8.0
2 Jonathan Aranda7.6
4 Chandler Simpson6.9
MODEL TOTAL 8.2 vs 7.5EDGE SD +2.1ppHR AIR 1.00xROOF/DOME — NO WIND
TEX @ MIL2:10 PM ET · American Family Field
TEX37.2% · λ 3.30
Jacob deGrom RHP
5 IP · 5.5 K · 2.60 ER exp
1 Wyatt Langford7.2
MIL62.8% · λ 5.13
Kyle Harrison LHP
5 IP · 5.9 K · 1.72 ER exp
4 Jake Bauers8.7
3 Brice Turang8.7
1 Jackson Chourio8.5
2 William Contreras7.9
MODEL TOTAL 8.8 vs 8.5EDGE MIL +2.5ppHR AIR 1.16x17 MPH CROSSING TO LF
CHW @ MIN2:10 PM ET · Target Field
CHW50.0% · λ 5.21
Anthony Kay LHP
5 IP · 4.4 K · 2.42 ER exp
1 Munetaka Murakami8.8
2 Miguel Vargas8.3
5 Sam Antonacci7.8
6 Colson Montgomery7.8
MIN50.0% · λ 4.55
Zebby Matthews RHP
6 IP · 6.0 K · 3.23 ER exp
1 Luke Keaschall7.7
2 Josh Bell7.3
MODEL TOTAL 9.8 vs 8.5EDGE CHW +2.2ppHR AIR 0.93x10 MPH CROSSING TO LF
PIT @ STL2:15 PM ET · Busch Stadium
PIT50.7% · λ 4.55
Braxton Ashcraft RHP
7 IP · 6.8 K · 3.08 ER exp
2 Brandon Lowe7.9
5 Esmerlyn Valdez7.5
3 Jake Mangum7.3
1 Bryan Reynolds7.3
STL49.3% · λ 4.57
Matthew Liberatore LHP
5 IP · 4.6 K · 2.25 ER exp
1 Ivan Herrera7.9
3 Alec Burleson7.7
2 JJ Wetherholt7.5
4 Jordan Walker7.3
MODEL TOTAL 9.8 vs 8.0EDGE STL +1.4ppHR AIR 1.27x7 MPH CROSSING TO LF
HOU @ NYM3:10 PM ET · Citi Field
HOU47.5% · λ 4.38
Ethan Pecko RHP
5 IP · 4.2 K · 2.28 ER exp
1 Jeremy Pena▲8.0
2 Yordan Alvarez▼7.9
3 Isaac Paredes▲7.6
4 Jose Altuve▲7.3
NYM52.5% · λ 4.63
Zac Thornton LHP
5 IP · 4.8 K · 2.44 ER exp
2 Juan Soto▲9.9
1 Francisco Lindor▲8.5
4 Carson Benge▲7.8
5 Jared Young▲7.5
MODEL TOTAL 9.6 vs 9.0EDGE HOU +0.3ppHR AIR 1.19x6 MPH OUT TO CF
BAL @ OAK4:05 PM ET · Sutter Health Park
BAL58.2% · λ 5.64
Chris Bassitt RHP
5 IP · 8.4 K · 2.51 ER exp
2 Pete Alonso9.4
3 Gunnar Henderson8.5
1 Jackson Holliday8.1
5 Christian Encarnacion-Strand7.7
OAK41.8%
starter TBA
MODEL TOTAL 12.3 vs 10.5EDGE OAK +0.1ppHR AIR 1.18xCALM
PHI @ LAA4:07 PM ET · Angel Stadium
PHI62.5% · λ 4.71
Zack Wheeler RHP
5 IP · 7.6 K · 2.08 ER exp
1 Kyle Schwarber9.4
2 Bryce Harper8.8
3 Trea Turner7.8
5 Bryson Stott7.3
LAA37.5% · λ 3.88
George Klassen RHP
5 IP · 4.5 K · 2.45 ER exp
2 Zach Neto7.7
1 Mike Trout7.6
MODEL TOTAL 9.8 vs 8.0EDGE LAA +1.0ppHR AIR 1.39x10 MPH OUT TO CF
CIN @ CHC7:20 PM ET · Wrigley Field
CIN40.4% · λ 3.92
Chase Burns RHP
5 IP · 6.3 K · 3.33 ER exp
1 Elly De La Cruz7.6
2 Sal Stewart7.6
CHC59.6% · λ 6.15
Clay Holmes RHP
6 IP · 5.0 K · 2.34 ER exp
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong10.5
3 Seiya Suzuki9.5
4 Michael Busch9.3
2 Alex Bregman8.9
MODEL TOTAL 10.3 vs 9.0EDGE CHC +3.3ppHR AIR 1.20x6 MPH OUT TO CF
Starter lines are the model's expected innings, strikeouts, and earned runs against this lineup. λ is each side's expected runs from the run-expectancy model — the model's team total. ▲/▼ marks the platoon read against the named starter.
EDGE BASIS · PUBLISHED BLEND VS DE-VIG MARKET MEDIAN; MATERIAL AT >=55% PUBLISHED SIDE CONFIDENCE AND >=5PP EDGE (PRE-REGISTERED, BOTH LEGS REQUIRED) · JOURNALED TIMES ARE WRITE-ONCE