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PICKS FRAMEWORK · GOLF · 2026-04-22

Zurich Classic 2026 — Arcline Picks Framework

The Arcline golf model's full picks framework for the 2026 Zurich Classic — team targets, leverage plays, and a $50 betting card for TPC Louisiana.

Arcline Analytics
00 · OVERVIEW
// HOW DK SCORES THIS WEEK
DraftKings prices individual players, not teams. Every player on a two-man team carries the same salary. You can only roster one player from each team — it doesn’t matter which one you pick. That player earns DK fantasy points for everything the entire team does.
The scoring is based on four rounds: two four-ball (best ball) rounds where the lowest score counts, and two alternate shot rounds where both players alternate hitting the same ball. Getting six players through the cut — which is top 33 teams — is harder than any standard week on Tour.
01 · WEATHER INTELLIGENCE
// 01.1AVONDALE, LA · WIND FORECAST
KEVIN_ROTH · @KevinRothWx
A fairly typical pattern in Louisiana for the Zurich Classic, with a few gusty afternoon winds and a chance for spotty daily downpours.
Thursday
WIND_LIGHT · PM_CHANCE
Winds 5-10mph early, sustained up around 10mph or a bit higher by the afternoon. A slim chance of an afternoon downpour.
Friday
WIND_LIGHT · PM_RAIN
Similar weather, with 5-10mph early morning, and winds steadily climbing to around 10mph in the afternoon. Again there’s a chance for a spotty downpour, more likely late than early, but possible at any time.
Saturday
WIND_CALM · STORM_RISK
Winds are lighter and look a bit steadier through the day, 5mph or so on average. There’s a better chance for a shower or storm impacting play.
Sunday
WIND_MODERATE · STRAY_STORM
Winds get back to the “lighter in the morning, higher in the afternoon” pattern, but they still max out in a manageable 10mph or so range. Again a stray shower or storm is possible.
// OVERALL_READ
Every day, for the most part, is similar to those before it. I don’t see a clear edge here wave by wave, especially while looking at the first 2 days.
— @KEVINROTHWX
// the Arcline golf model read: No wave split advantage this week. Soft course conditions through the weekend benefit approach-heavy teams. Saturday storm risk is the only material variable — monitor for potential delays in the four-ball round.
02 · CASH GAME · 5 TARGETS · FLOOR FIRST
Cash game this week is about finding teams with the strongest floor metrics in both formats. Four-ball upside plus alternate-shot survivability. These five clear both.
Shane LowryKoepka / Lowry
DK $10,000+1475
FPPG 105.41 · 3rd in fieldWin 5.3% · T10 34.8%Koepka 2nd SG:APP TourWon 2024 Zurich+1475
The Arcline golf model projects 105.41 FPPG — third-highest in the field behind only the Fitzpatrick brothers and Gerard/Yellamaraju. Lowry won here in 2024, T12 in 2025. Koepka ranks 2nd on Tour in SG: Approach with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts. The model gives them a 34.8% top-10 probability and 72.4% to make the cut.
ARCLINE105.41 FPPG, 5.3% win probability. Best documented floor at this price. Cash anchor.
Ryan GerardGerard / Yellamaraju
DK $9,500+1750
FPPG 105.80 · 2nd in fieldWin 5.5% · T10 35.5%1st Birdie or Better% field2nd par-5 scoring+1750
The Arcline golf model projects 105.80 FPPG — second-highest in the entire field. The model gives them a 5.5% win probability, higher than Koepka/Lowry despite a $500 lower salary. This team ranks first in birdie-making percentage and second in par-5 scoring. Gerard T12 at this event last year. Yellamaraju: nine cuts in ten events, five top-17 finishes.
ARCLINE105.80 FPPG, 5.5% win probability — highest the Arcline golf model projection relative to salary in the field.
Matt McCartyMcCarty / Meissner
DK $8,700+2500
FPPG 99.33 · 9th in fieldWin 3.2% · T10 27.0%2nd par-5 scoring fieldMcCarty T24 Masters + T12 RBC Heritage+2500
The Arcline golf model projects 99.33 FPPG — 9th in the field at the 12th-highest salary. The model gives them a 27.0% top-10 probability and 66.8% to make the cut. Second in the field in par-5 scoring. McCarty posted back-to-back top-25s at the Masters and RBC Heritage.
ARCLINE99.33 FPPG at $8,700 — best value ratio among mid-tier cash plays. 3.2% win probability.
Karl VilipsThorbjornsen / Vilips
DK $9,400+2100
FPPG 98.74 · 10th in fieldWin 3.3% · T10 27.5%-19 four-ball 2025 ZurichT4 2025 debut+2100
The Arcline golf model projects 98.74 FPPG with a 27.5% top-10 probability. The only team in the mid-range salary tier with documented four-ball upside at this exact venue. Shot -19 across their two best-ball rounds last year. Vilips ranks 11th on Tour in putting, Thorbjornsen handles the tee-to-green load. Stanford teammates.
ARCLINE98.74 FPPG, 3.3% win probability. Proven four-ball ceiling with venue chemistry at $9,400.
Tony FinauFinau / Greyserman
DK $7,900+3500
FPPG 87.21 · 24th in fieldWin 1.8% · T10 17.8%Six-time PGA Tour winnerBest sub-$8K upside team+3500
The Arcline golf model projects 87.21 FPPG — 24th in field but the highest among sub-$8K teams. The model gives them a 17.8% top-10 probability at $7,900. Finau brings elite approach play. Greyserman contributes off the tee and on the greens. The 57.9% make-cut probability is the floor risk — but at this salary, you're paying for the ceiling.
ARCLINE87.21 FPPG at $7,900. Best value ratio in the sub-$8K tier. 1.8% win probability.
03 · GPP · 5 TARGETS · LEVERAGE + CEILING
GPP this week is about four-ball ceiling and ownership inefficiency. Ownership clusters around the top teams — these five give you differentiation with legitimate upside.
Sudarshan YellamarajuGerard / Yellamaraju
DK $9,500+1750
Pick Yellamaraju over Gerard in GPP for lower projected ownership on the same team.
FPPG 105.80 · 2nd in fieldWin 5.5% · T5 21.5%T5 THE PLAYERS1st Tour approaches 200+ yards+1750
Same 105.80 FPPG projection as Gerard — second-highest in the field. Yellamaraju is the sleeper inside this team. T5 at THE PLAYERS, T6 Houston Open, first on Tour from approaches over 200 yards. Lower projected ownership than Gerard at the same $9,500 salary makes him the GPP-optimized selection.
ARCLINE105.80 FPPG, 5.5% win probability. Lower ownership on the field's #2-ranked team. GPP lever.
Billy HorschelHorschel / Hoge
DK $7,100+6500
FPPG 81.26 · 37th in fieldWin 0.6% · T10 10.6%Two Zurich wins (2013 + 2018)Hoge 12th SG:APP Tour+6500
The Arcline golf model projects 81.26 FPPG — 37th in field, which is why the price is where it is. But the model doesn't weight venue history as heavily as this specific course demands. Two wins, five T13+ in six Zurich starts. Hoge ranks 12th in SG: Approach. The 49.0% make-cut probability is the risk. The ceiling at 65-1 is the reward.
ARCLINE81.26 FPPG understates the venue history. Qualitative edge over the model at +6500.
A.J. EwartEwart / Jarvis
DK $7,400+4900
FPPG 88.30 · 21st in fieldWin 1.5% · T10 17.1%Ewart five top-30 in last 7 startsJarvis two DP World Tour wins in last 5+4900
The Arcline golf model projects 88.30 FPPG — 21st in field at the 22nd-highest salary. Both players in excellent form. Ewart has five top-30 finishes in seven starts as a rookie. Jarvis is dominant overseas — two wins, a T2, T13 in his last five DP World Tour starts. The model gives them a 17.1% top-10 probability and 57.7% to make the cut.
ARCLINE88.30 FPPG at $7,400. Best-form team at this price tier. 1.5% win probability.
Sam StevensStevens / Bauchou
DK $8,300Long
FPPG 95.47 · 13th in fieldWin 2.4% · T10 23.5%T4 + T24 last two Zurich ClassicsBauchou 8-of-10 cuts
The Arcline golf model projects 95.47 FPPG — 13th in the entire field at what should be a sub-$7K salary. The model gives them a 23.5% top-10 probability and 2.4% win rate. Stevens T4 and T24 at his last two Zurich appearances. Bauchou has made 8 of 10 cuts as a rookie. This is the most mispriced team on the board.
ARCLINE95.47 FPPG at minimum salary. 13th-best projection in a 74-team field. Maximum leverage.
Casey JarvisEwart / Jarvis
DK $7,400+4900
Pick Jarvis over Ewart for differentiation — same team, potentially different ownership split.
FPPG 88.30 · same team projectionWin 1.5% · T10 17.1%Two DP World Tour wins in last 5 starts+4900
Same 88.30 FPPG and 17.1% top-10 probability as GPP Pick 3 — same team, different player for ownership differentiation. If Ewart draws public attention, Jarvis is the leverage play. Same salary, same team output, potentially lower individual roster rate. Two wins and a T2 in his last five DP World Tour starts.
ARCLINE88.30 FPPG. Leverage play within the highest-form team at $7,400. Differentiation pick.
04 · BUILD NOTES
// LINEUP CONSTRUCTION
  • ›$50,000 salary cap. Six players. Each from a different team.
  • ›Use at least two cash picks as your floor — then layer in GPP plays for upside.
  • ›You pick one player per team — doesn't matter which for scoring, but matters for ownership differentiation.
  • ›Getting six teams through the cut (top 33) is the hardest part of the week. Prioritize teams with documented cut-making history in this format.
05 · BETTING CARD · $50 BANKROLL · TEAM FORMAT DISCOUNT
// the Arcline golf model reduces betting bankroll for team-format events. The chemistry variable and format unpredictability introduce model uncertainty that individual stroke play does not. $50 deployed, not $150. Five tickets total.
// 05.0$50 BANKROLL · 5 TICKETS
DK_SPORTSBOOK
> EDGE_RULEEdge = the Arcline golf model probability − DK implied probability, in percentage points. STRONG ≥ +5pp · EDGE ≥ +2pp · THIN ≥ 0pp
// OUTRIGHT_01OUTRIGHTThorbjornsen / Vilips
ODDS +2100DK_VERIFIED
STAKE
$10
TO_WIN
$210
IMPLIED
4.5%
ARCLINE
3.3%
EDGE
-1.2pp
SIGNAL
MARKET_SIDE
> RATIONALEThe Arcline golf model win probability 3.3% vs. 4.5% implied — the model actually prices them below the market outright, but that's the win-only number. Their top-5 rate (15.0%) and venue chemistry justify a sprinkle at +2100. Shot -19 in four-ball rounds in 2025. Outright markets in team events carry wide variance.
// TOP5_01TOP 5Koepka / Lowry
ODDS +450VERIFY_BEFORE_PLACING
STAKE
$12
TO_WIN
$54
IMPLIED
18.2%
ARCLINE
20.8%
EDGE
+2.6pp
SIGNAL
EDGE
> RATIONALEThe Arcline golf model top-5 probability 20.8% vs. 18.2% implied at +450. Lowry's TPC Louisiana floor is the best among active participants. Koepka ranks 2nd on Tour in SG: Approach. Top-5 is the right market for a team with the highest documented floor but untested alternate-shot chemistry.
// TOP10_01TOP 10McCarty / Meissner
ODDS +280VERIFY_BEFORE_PLACING
STAKE
$13
TO_WIN
$36
IMPLIED
26.3%
ARCLINE
27.0%
EDGE
+0.7pp
SIGNAL
THIN
> RATIONALEThe Arcline golf model top-10 probability 27.0% vs. 26.3% implied at +280. Thin edge but the correct direction — 2nd in field par-5 scoring, and the model's 99.33 FPPG projection ranks 9th in field. The market hasn't fully priced the par-5 data.
// TOP10_02TOP 10Horschel / Hoge
ODDS +700VERIFY_BEFORE_PLACING
STAKE
$5
TO_WIN
$35
IMPLIED
12.5%
ARCLINE
10.6%
EDGE
-1.9pp
SIGNAL
MARKET_SIDE
> RATIONALEThe Arcline golf model top-10 probability 10.6% vs. 12.5% implied — the model sees this as a slight market-side play. But Horschel's venue record (two wins, five T13+ in six starts) is a qualitative edge the model underweights. Small stake, pure leverage. The 81.26 FPPG projection reflects current form, not history.
// PARLAY_012-LEG TOP 10Thorbjornsen/Vilips + McCarty/Meissner
~+900VERIFY_BEFORE_PLACING
> Thorbjornsen / VilipsT10
> McCarty / MeissnerT10
STAKE
$10
TO_WIN
~$90
IMPLIED
~10%
ARCLINE
~7.4%
EDGE
-2.6pp
SIGNAL
MARKET_SIDE
> RATIONALEThe Arcline golf model joint probability (7.4%) is below the ~10% parlay implied — technically market-side. But the two legs are positively correlated through the par-5 architecture: if TPC Louisiana plays soft, both teams benefit. Correlated upside justifies the sprinkle despite the raw edge math.
// TICKET_SUMMARY
$10Thorbjornsen/Vilips outright @ +2100$12Koepka/Lowry Top 5 @ +450$13McCarty/Meissner Top 10 @ +280$5Horschel/Hoge Top 10 @ +700$10Parlay: Thorbjornsen/Vilips + McCarty/Meissner Top 10
TOTAL_DEPLOYED$50 · 100%
// All DK odds must be verified before placing — team event markets drift significantly before tee time. For entertainment purposes only. Wager responsibly.
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