U.S. Open — the week

Wyndham Clark won U.S. Open at -4, a single shot clear of Sam Burns.

Wyndham Clark closed it out at -4, holding off Sam Burns at -3, with Tom Kim third at -1. He gained on the field everywhere, but the week was the putter — about 1.5 strokes a round on the greens, the kind of number that wins tournaments and resists being projected in advance.

Our pre-event model had him outside the top twenty of the win board — 20th on our win board at 1.5% to win. So the headline up front: the model did not see this winner coming, and we'll say so plainly below. What it did see was the shape of the leaderboard around him.

Where the model earned its keep was the top of the board. Scottie Scheffler (model 1st on the win board) finished T4; Sam Burns (model 9th on the win board) finished 2nd. The names it leaned on largely turned up in contention — the read on who belonged was sound.

Where it missed: the winner. Wyndham Clark sat 20th in our win projection at 1%, on the edge of the top-ten radar at 17% — a live longshot, not a headline. It also over-rated a few who never got going: Jon Rahm (3rd on the board, missed the cut), Bryson DeChambeau (11th on the board, missed the cut). A putting-led winner from the pack is the hardest outcome to forecast, and the model didn't — that's the honest read, not a footnote.

Every name the model put forward, the original line, and where it ended — positional, not graded. The line is the pre-event fair price; the verdict is whether the case held.

Top of the board by actual DK points:

It was a leverage week, not a chalk week. The optimal lineup leaned on names almost nobody rostered, and the field's heaviest chalk — several of the most-owned — largely failed. When the value comes from the unowned mid-tier, the chalk-heavy builds get left behind.

The winner was a putting week, and that's noise the model is right not to chase. Wyndham Clark won on the greens; cross-field, week-to-week putting is the least predictive part of the game. The model rated the contenders well and the champion late — under the new methodology, that distinction is exactly what gets graded going forward.

The tour moves on to a new test next week — a different course, a different profile. The next stop resets the board and rewards its own mix of skills.

It's also where the picks record begins. The full preview — the model's board, the outright and placement spots that clear the edge bar, and the DFS build — drops Wednesday. From Thursday, every pick is on the record.