Tournament Overview
- Purse: $9.5M
- Winner's Share: $1.71M
- Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
- Par: 72
- Yardage: 7,494 yards
- Greens: Bermuda
- Field Size: 126 players
- Dates: April 3-6, 2026
Field Context: Birdie-Fest Conditions
"TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course plays soft and receptive this week. Significant precipitation is projected through Thursday, with 37% humidity and southerly winds 8-14mph across all four rounds."
Soft conditions mean attackable flags and holding approaches. The winning score projection ranges from -17 to -21.
Last Week -- Texas Children's Houston Open
Gary Woodland won at Memorial Park with a -29 score (259). His success derived from elite putting (+8.33 SG:Putting) and solid approach play (+5.60 SG:Approach). Nicolai Hojgaard finished second at -24, with Min Woo Lee and Johnny Keefer tying third at -23.
Key lesson: Poa Trivialis greens heavily favored putting specialists. The surface resets this week -- Bermuda greens present fundamentally different reading challenges.
Course Intel: TPC San Antonio -- Oaks Course
Opened in 2010, this venue has hosted the Valero Texas Open annually since. At 7,494 yards and par 72, it represents one of Texas's longer courses, yet length doesn't determine winners here.
The Approach Play Premium
"Every winner gained significant strokes approaching the green. Not one exception."
The course features four par 4s exceeding 450 yards and three reachable par 5s. Wide fairways eliminate the driving accuracy penalty found on tighter courses, shifting the advantage to approach excellence and scrambling ability.
The Par 5 Eagle Math
Three reachable par 5s (holes 1, 8, and 16) create substantial scoring differentials. An eagle scores 8 points on DraftKings versus 3 for a birdie -- a 5-point swing per hole. Across three holes over four rounds, this creates up to 60 points of separation between players reaching in two versus those who cannot.
Bermuda Greens: The Grain Factor
"Grain direction becomes a meaningful variable -- putts with the grain are faster than they appear, putts against it die."
Four of the last five winners gained meaningfully on the greens. Zero winners showed negative putting performance.
Course History -- Last 5 Years
| Year | Winner | Score | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Brian Harman | -9 | +6.15 SG:APP, +5.30 SG:PUTT |
| 2024 | Akshay Bhatia | -20 | +8.23 SG:APP, +6.28 SG:ARG |
| 2023 | Corey Conners | -15 | +9.54 SG:APP -- highest of any winner |
| 2022 | J.J. Spaun | -13 | Balanced across all four categories |
| 2021 | Jordan Spieth | -18 | +7.42 SG:APP, +5.71 SG:PUTT |
CADDIE Model Weighting
The model applies custom weighting based on five years of historical results:
1. SG: Approach -- 2.0x baseline weighting. The primary selection filter and most predictive category.
2. SG: Putting (Bermuda) -- 1.7x baseline weighting. Grain-reading on Bermuda represents a specific skill not transferable from Poa surfaces.
3. SG: Around the Green -- 1.4x baseline weighting. Soft conditions mean approaches hold, but scrambling provides floor protection in wet weather.
4. SG: Off the Tee -- 0.7x baseline weighting. Below baseline due to wide fairways reducing accuracy premiums. Distance matters only on three specific par 5s.
The FIT Score Framework
CADDIE assigns FIT scores (0-100) measuring stylistic alignment with course demands. Higher scores indicate better fit, though the metric represents a signal rather than a definitive pick.
Notable Players
Denny McCarthy -- FIT: 72.7
- Elite course history with four consecutive top-25 finishes
- Primary weapon: SG:Putting at maximum value on Bermuda
- Form momentum: +1.796
Russell Henley -- Highest Projected
- SG:Total of 1.52 leads the field
- Approach metrics align with TPC San Antonio demands
- Positive form momentum trending upward
- 32.5% projected ownership (chalk concern for GPP)
Michael Thorbjornsen -- Strongest Form Momentum
- Form momentum score: +2.858 (highest in 126-player field)
- Salary: $8,900
- Projected ownership: 11%
- Simulated ceiling: 193 DraftKings points
- Positioned as primary GPP differentiator at salary range
Tommy Fleetwood -- Model Fade
- Salary: $10,500 (highest-salaried player)
- Model ranking: 7th in projected points
- Form momentum: -1.314 (below career average)
- Course fit: 21.1/100
- At 35% projected ownership with 7th-place ranking, leverage math doesn't support GPP exposure
Full CADDIE Projections
Complete DFS slate with FPPG, ownership projections, leverage scores, course fit assessments, ceilings, and value ratings for all 126 players release Wednesday morning, April 1.
Methodology: 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulations with proprietary DraftKings scoring models.
Disclaimer: DFS and betting involve risk. Never wager more than you can afford to lose. Age 21+ only.