2026 Valero Texas Open
CADDIE presents comprehensive daily fantasy sports analysis for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) in San Antonio, Texas. The tournament features a $9.5M purse with $1.71M to the winner. The course measures 7,494 yards at par 72 with Bermuda greens.
Wind Is the Story at TPC San Antonio
South Texas gusts build through Thursday afternoon and peak Friday PM. Saturday cold front brings storms. The early wave owns this week.
Thursday AM / Friday AM provides the optimal wave, avoiding peak Friday afternoon wind of 20 mph sustained with 25-30 mph gusts.
What TPC San Antonio Actually Demands
Approach play is the dominant skill. Five consecutive winners were elite in SG: Approach.
TPC San Antonio's design emphasizes approach play over driving accuracy. The course features wide fairways that minimize the penalty for imprecise tee shots. Historical data reveals that five of five winners since 2021 were elite in approach play. Not one was neutral or negative in SG:APP.
The third consecutive week on overseeded Poa surfaces ends here, with the course transitioning to grain-heavy Bermuda greens -- a significant advantage for players who struggled on Poa but perform well on Bermuda.
| Year | Winner | Score | SG:APP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Jordan Spieth | -18 | +7.42 |
| 2022 | J.J. Spaun | -16 | +2.74 |
| 2023 | Corey Conners | -15 | +9.54 |
| 2024 | Akshay Bhatia | -17 | +8.23 |
| 2025 | Brian Harman | -17 | +6.15 |
| Rank | Player | SG:APP | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russell Henley | +0.53 | 31.6% |
| 2 | Robert MacIntyre | +0.03 | 27.6% |
| 3 | Michael Thorbjornsen | +0.21 | 10.7% |
| 4 | Sepp Straka | +0.53 | 23% |
| 5 | Jordan Spieth | +0.35 | 35% |
| 6 | Maverick McNealy | +0.35 | 16.3% |
| 7 | Nick Taylor | +0.27 | 21.8% |
| 8 | Denny McCarthy | +0.00 | 18.6% |
Fleetwood leads with +0.60 SG:APP but carries 35% ownership. Spaun (+0.58, 14.4% ownership) and Mitchell (+0.38, 14.4% ownership) offer similar approach profiles at half the field exposure.
Build Your Floor Here
Five core plays total $43,900, leaving $6,100 for a sixth spot.
RUSSELL HENLEY
Henley's 78% make-cut rate is the highest among sub-$10K players this week. His SG:APP of +0.53 at TPC San Antonio-type courses over the last 24 months makes him a near-lock cash play regardless of ownership.
MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN
MAVERICK MCNEALY
NICK TAYLOR
DENNY MCCARTHY
Leverage Analysis
CADDIE's leverage metric divides win probability by ownership percentage. Higher scores indicate superior win equity relative to field exposure.
“The most-owned player at the Valero Texas Open has never won. Not once in five years. The winner averaged 12.5% ownership.”
MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN
MAX MCGREEVY
SEAMUS POWER
BEAU HOSSLER
Players to Avoid
Si Woo Kim (33% ownership), Jordan Spieth (35% ownership, 0% win probability), and Aberg (35% ownership, 0% win probability). Chalk without commensurate win equity. Fading all three in GPP builds.
WHERE THE MARKET IS WRONG.
Kelly-sized positions. Aether probabilities vs implied odds. Edge-only plays.
Aether's cut survival model gives Henley 78.4% probability based on his SG:APP at TPC San Antonio and 5-year make-cut consistency. DraftKings prices this market at -115 (implied 46.5%), a 31.9% discrepancy. Primary risk: cold putter — Henley's SG:PUTT has been negative 3 of last 5 events.
At 10.7% ownership, Thorbjornsen is largely ignored by the market. But Aether's SG:T2G metric at +0.73 ranks him 4th in the field for tee-to-green performance. His 26.4% top-20 probability at +180 represents meaningful edge.
Fleetwood's approach precision at TPC San Antonio-style courses is elite. Aether projects 14.2% top-5 probability vs implied 8.6%. The 5.6% edge is modest but Fleetwood's consistency makes this a high-floor bet.
Kim's ball-striking profile matches TPC San Antonio's demands perfectly. At +400 for top-10, implied probability is just 9.5% vs Aether's 19.3%. His low 4.8% ownership means the market is sleeping on a player Aether ranks 3rd overall.
Aether betting analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Past edge does not guarantee future results. Please bet responsibly and within your means.
Potential Returns by Scenario
| Scenario | Return |
|---|---|
| All bets hit + outright | +$740 |
| Outright + T10 + T20 | +$522 |
| 3 T10/T20s + parlay | +$185 |
| Realistic good week | +$231 |
| Only parlay hits | -$20 |
| Maximum risk (reserve survives) | -$130 |
Quick Reference
Cash Plays: Henley, Thorbjornsen, McNealy, Taylor, McCarthy ($43,900 for five spots, $6,100 remaining)
GPP Targets: Thorbjornsen (95.1 pts, 10.7% ownership), McGreevy (172.5 leverage, 0.8% ownership), Power ($6,900, 0.8% ownership), Hossler ($6,800, 0.8% ownership)
GPP Fades: Si Woo Kim (33% ownership), Spieth (35% ownership), Aberg (35% ownership)
Best Bet: Thorbjornsen Top 10 (+550)
Best Outright: Thorbjornsen (+3900)
Key Stat: SG: Tee-to-Green drives outcomes; Thorbjornsen leads pivots at +0.73.
Optimal Weather Window: Thursday PM / Friday AM avoids peak wind.