Tournament Overview
- Purse: $9.9M
- Winner's Share: $1.782M
- Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
- Par: 70
- Yardage: 7,475 yards
- Field Size: 127 players
- Greens: Poa Trivialis
Field Context: Scheffler Withdrawal
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler withdrew to attend his second child's birth. His absence fundamentally changes the tournament dynamics. "Without a dominant chalk, public money redistributes across the field instead of concentrating on a single top-tier play," creating opportunity for differentiation through strategic ownership analysis.
Last Week's Validation
Matt Fitzpatrick won the Valspar Championship at -11, confirming the CADDIE model's top value projection. Jordan Smith finished T3 despite entering at 2.5% ownership. Viktor Hovland missed the cut after being correctly faded by the model.
Course Intelligence: Memorial Park
Tom Doak's 2020 renovation created a paradox: the course measures among the three longest on Tour at 7,475 yards, yet rewards precision over pure distance due to thin rough (1.25 inches of ryegrass). Long hitters who miss fairways still access greens cleanly.
The Par 3 Gauntlet
Five par 3s averaging 192 yards demand long irons or hybrids exclusively. No short-iron par 3s exist on this layout. Strokes Gained: Approach specifically on long irons becomes the primary selection filter.
The Par 5 Eagle Math
Three par 5s average 609 yards:
- Hole 3: 587 yards
- Hole 8: 625 yards
- Hole 16: 616 yards
Eagles score 8 points on DraftKings; birdies score 3. This creates potential 60-point separation across four rounds for elite long-hitters reaching greens in two.
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis Spike Factor
Same surface as last week's Valspar Championship. Putting form carries between weeks on identical grass types. Players who putted well at Copperhead maintain that edge.
Bunker Strategy
Only 21 bunkers (fewest on Tour). Missing greens typically means rough rather than sand, emphasizing green-in-regulation over scrambling ability.
Course History Since 2020 Renovation
| Year | Winner | Score | Notable |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Min Woo Lee | -20 (260) | Course record; won via irons/putting, not driving |
| 2024 | Akshay Bhatia | -15 | -- |
| 2023 | Tony Finau | -10 | -- |
| 2022 | Matt Kuchar | -11 | -- |
| 2021 | Carlos Ortiz | -12 | -- |
Every champion has been an elite ball-striker. Five of the 2025 top-7 finishers ranked in the field's top 15 for ball speed off the tee.
CADDIE Model Weighting
The model applies custom weightings based on Memorial Park's architecture:
1. SG: Approach (Long Irons) -- Weighted 2.1x normal baseline. The five par 3s demanding hybrid/3-iron precision make this the single most predictive category.
2. Driving Distance -- Weighted 1.8x normal. Eagle upside on 609-yard par 5 average provides compounding ceiling advantage.
3. SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis) -- Weighted 1.5x normal. Week 2 of the same surface means putting form carries forward.
4. SG: Tee to Green -- Weighted 0.9x normal. Thin rough reduces accuracy penalties, diminishing this stat's predictive value.
The FIT Score Paradox
Course fit (0-100 scale) measures statistical alignment but isn't predictive alone. The analysis demonstrates this with Stephan Jaeger, who scores a perfect 100 FIT but carries just an 89-point ceiling -- insufficient for GPP (tournament) victories requiring 110+ upside.
By contrast, Chris Gotterup combines 91 FIT with a 98 ceiling, illustrating the critical formula: fit signals consistency; ceiling determines tournament-winning potential.
Early Narratives & Key Plays
Min Woo Lee: Defending Champion
The 2025 winner dominated through iron play and Poa putting -- not driving distance. Coming off a T4 finish at Valspar, CADDIE projects him first overall. Defending champion status guarantees high ownership, creating GPP leverage complications despite top projection.
Ryan Gerard: Under-the-Radar Elite
The model projects Gerard second in fantasy points despite sub-10% expected ownership. His elite long-iron numbers and driving distance perfectly match Memorial Park's demands. This represents "structural inefficiency: near-top projection, bottom-10% ownership" with high ceiling upside.
Jordan Smith: Back-to-Back Leverage
After nearly winning at Valspar with 2.5% ownership, Smith re-enters with improved putting metrics on the same Poa grass. Projected mid-20s FPPG with the field's highest leverage score, Smith at sub-5% expected ownership represents an asymmetric GPP opportunity at $7,400 salary.
Wyndham Clark: Quiet Value
Clark's 93 FIT ranks top-5 in the field with top-30 projection, high-90s ceiling, and sub-10% ownership. "Complete profile at a reasonable salary" without media attention, Clark exemplifies mid-range leverage plays.
The Chalk Tier
Jake Knapp, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Sam Burns project top-10 with strong course fit but expected 12-16% ownership. Rickie Fowler will attract hometown attention, potentially inflating ownership beyond leverage thresholds.
Ownership Distribution Outlook
With Scheffler absent, public money spreads across 6-8 names rather than concentrating on one dominant play. Multiple players reaching 15%+ ownership becomes more likely, requiring adjusted GPP construction strategy accounting for flatter ownership distribution.
Full CADDIE projections release Wednesday, March 25, 2026, featuring complete FPPG, ownership projections, leverage scores, course fit analysis, ceilings, and value ratings for all 127 players.