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Zurich Classic 2026 — 10 Teams To Watch
CADDIE Team Preview · TPC Louisiana · Avondale, LA
10 Teams To Watch
CADDIE AnalysisZurich Classic 2026Apr 23–26Avondale, LA

TPC LOUISIANA · PAR 72 · 7,425 YARDS · $9.5M PURSE · TEAM FORMAT

The Zurich Classic is the hardest week on the Tour calendar to model. The format scrambles individual SG data, chemistry is a real variable, and the winning team almost always does something in four-ball that their season numbers don't fully predict. These are CADDIE's early leans — teams worth a look and a sprinkle, not official plays. Those drop Wednesday.

01 — The Chalk

The safer play

Koepka / Lowry
DK Odds: +1475
Chalk
Lowry won this event in 2024 with McIlroy in a playoff. Finished T12 in his title defense in 2025.
Lowry ranks 19th on Tour in bogey avoidance this season — critical for alternate-shot survivability.
Koepka ranks 2nd on PGA Tour in SG: Approach this season. Top-20 in four of his last five starts including T12 at the Masters.
First time paired together. Koepka's first Zurich start since 2019.
CADDIE Note
Lowry's course history is the best among active participants in this field. Koepka's approach numbers are the best fit for TPC Louisiana of any player at this price. The new partnership is the only model risk. For safer plays, this is the anchor.
02 — Teams To Watch

8 teams the model likes

From mid-range value to deep leverage. Each team cleared CADDIE's format-fit filter: approach skill, par-5 scoring, four-ball upside, team chemistry, and alternate-shot survivability.

Thorbjornsen / Vilips
+2100
Former Stanford teammates who finished T4 in their 2025 Zurich debut — their first time playing this event together. They shot -19 across two four-ball rounds last year, one of the elite best-ball marks in the field. Vilips won the 2025 Puerto Rico Open. Thorbjornsen posted T3 at the WM Phoenix Open in February 2026. Both finished T33 at RBC Heritage last week with zero top-20s combined in their past two events coming in — but the form dip is already baked into the price.
CADDIE Signal
Proven four-ball ceiling at this exact venue. The form dip is priced in at +2100. Chemistry is documented, not assumed.
Novak / Griffin
+1750
Defending champions at -28 in 2025, the third-lowest winning total in tournament history. Both won their first PGA Tour titles here. Griffin went on to win twice more in 2025 and made the Ryder Cup team. He has rebounded from three straight MCs with three consecutive top-35 finishes, gaining strokes OTT in each of his past four starts. Novak posted T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T16 at RBC Heritage. They rank as the 5th-best putting duo in the field.
CADDIE Signal
Defending champions with documented chemistry and both trending upward. The format rewards familiarity — no team in the field has more of it than these two.
McCarty / Meissner
+2500
McCarty is on an elite two-week run: T24 at the Masters followed by T12 at RBC Heritage, gaining strokes on approach in back-to-back major-field events. As a team, McCarty and Meissner rank 2nd in the entire field in par-5 scoring over the past year, 11th in recent form, and 13th in putting. The par-5 scoring overlap is the structural edge — TPC Louisiana's three par-5s are the primary birdie engines in four-ball play.
CADDIE Signal
The par-5 scoring profile is the single most important team metric at TPC Louisiana. This pair leads the field in that category. +2500 hasn't caught up to the data.
Li / Smith
+2200
Both rank inside the top 65 on Tour in birdie percentage — rare for a pair where both players are birdie threats rather than the typical one-anchor, one-stabilizer dynamic. Li contended at the Masters before a final-round collapse. Smith posted T16 at RBC Heritage, his 5th top-27 finish in 11 events in 2026, and previously ran 3rd at the Valspar Championship. First time paired together.
CADDIE Signal
Two birdie-makers at +2200 is a structural four-ball mismatch. The alternate-shot survivability question is real — that's the variable the full model addresses Wednesday.
Rai / Theegala
+2200
Rai has never missed the weekend at TPC Louisiana. He has four finishes of T23 or better at this event including T4 in 2022 — the most consistent venue record in the mid-range tier. Theegala and Rai finished T18 together in 2025, establishing a baseline of team performance at this specific course. Rai gained strokes on approach in each of his last three starts.
CADDIE Signal
The most consistent venue performer in the mid-range tier. Rai's TPC Louisiana floor is the best non-champion record in this field.
Thompson / Eckroat
+2400
Both are PGA Tour winners. Both finished inside the top 20 at the Valero Texas Open on strong tee-to-green weeks — Thompson T14, Eckroat T10. That kind of simultaneous approach-driven performance heading into a course that rewards exactly those skills is the timing correlation CADDIE's model looks for.
CADDIE Signal
Two players peaking at the right time on a course that rewards exactly what they just showed at the Valero. The timing correlation is real.
Horschel / Hoge
+6500
Horschel has two Zurich Classic wins — individually in 2013 and as a team with Scott Piercy in 2018. He has five finishes of T13 or better in his last six Zurich starts prior to 2024. Hoge ranks 12th in SG: Approach this season and 17th in proximity, with top-15 finishes at The American Express and AT&T Pebble Beach. First time paired together.
CADDIE Signal
The best tournament leverage play among experienced Zurich hands. Horschel's venue history is unmatched at this price. Hoge's approach numbers are exactly what TPC Louisiana demands.
Lower / Ramey
+6800
Ramey has finished T9, runner-up, and T8 at the last three Zurich Classics. His T8 in 2025 was with Lower — they are running it back. Ramey has missed only one cut in his last 11 starts and ranks 8th on Tour in SG: Putting this season. Lower has missed four of his last six cuts — the form risk is real and explains the price.
CADDIE Signal
Ramey's Zurich Classic record is one of the most consistent in the field across any price tier. The Lower form concern is the discount. If Ramey carries the alternate-shot rounds, this team has top-10 upside at 68-1.
03 — The Flyer

Boom or bust

Brown / Clanton
DK Odds: +7400
Flyer
Both on sponsor exemptions.
Brown finished 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open earlier in 2026. Has two top-3 finishes in his last three starts on the Korn Ferry Tour including a runner-up last week in Mexico.
Clanton finished T5 at the Puerto Rico Open. Both players finished top-5 in the same field at that event.
Neither has a PGA Tour win. Clanton is adjusting to the PGA Tour in his second season.
Both project as bombers capable of overpowering the par-5s.
CADDIE Note
This is the boom-or-bust play. In four-ball format, two players with elite birdie-making upside and nothing to lose is a different kind of threat than their odds suggest. The ceiling exists. The floor does not. Flyer bet only — and only if you can stomach the cut risk.
Coming Wednesday
Official plays, team targets, and the full outright / T10 / T20 betting card — including a parlay — drop Wednesday via CADDIE. These are the leans. Wednesday is the edge.
CADDIE · Arcline Analytics
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