// QUAIL_HOLLOW_CLUB · GREEN_MILE
35.0840°N · 80.8475°W
// TRUIST_CHAMPIONSHIP · MAY_7–10 · 2026
QUAIL HOLLOW.
[ AERIAL · GREEN MILE · CHARLOTTE NC ]
AETHER ONLINE◆ CADDIE ONLINE◆EVENT TRUIST_CHAMPIONSHIP◆FIELD 72◆MODEL_UPDATED 2026-05-06T15:00Z
// PICKS_FRAMEWORK · TRUIST_CHAMPIONSHIP · SIGNATURE_EVENT · NO_CUT
TRUIST CHAMPIONSHIP.
7,538 yards. The Green Mile doesn't negotiate.
CHARLOTTE_NCMAY_7–10PAR_71 · 7,538Y$20M_PURSE$3.6M_WINNER
0
FIELD
No cut · Signature event · Invite-only tier
0+
McILROY_ODDS
DK Sportsbook outright favorite
0$
TOP_SALARY
McIlroy DK anchor · field-high
0.00
LEAD_LEVERAGE
Cameron Young leverage score · WIN% ÷ OWN%
0$
BANKROLL
Six tickets + one parlay · edge-sized
// POWERED_BY_CADDIE · COURSE_ADJUSTED_DFS_INTELLIGENCE_ENGINE
// 01_COURSE_PREVIEW
// 01.1QUAIL HOLLOW · ARCHITECTURE
GEORGE_COBB · 1961 · TOM_FAZIO_RENOVATIONQuail Hollow Club is a par-71, 7,538-yard layout that has hosted PGA Tour events since 2003, the 2017 PGA Championship, and the 2022 Presidents Cup. George Cobb designed it in 1961. Tom Fazio's renovation — completed for the 2017 PGA Championship with greens converted to Champion Bermudagrass — transformed the closing stretch into the most demanding three-hole sequence in non-major golf.
The Green Mile — holes 16, 17, and 18 — annually ranks among the hardest closing stretches on Tour. Five par 4s exceed 450 yards. The rough is thick Bermudagrass overseeded with ryegrass. The greens are Bermudagrass with afternoon grain that compounds as the day progresses. This is not a birdie-fest venue. It is a four-round endurance test decided on the closing stretch, usually in wind on Sunday, usually by who can survive 16–18 cleanest.
// 01.2GREEN MILE + KEY HOLES
7,538Y_TOTALHOLE_16
P4 · 502Y
The Green Mile begins
Slight dogleg left. 310+ carry needed to set up a mid-iron approach. Creek left, bunkers right.
HOLE_17
P3 · 190Y
Over water
Narrow green angled front-to-back. Wind compounds club selection. This hole decides Sunday outcomes.
HOLE_18
P4 · 472Y
Uphill finish
Uphill approach into a two-tiered green with false front. The hardest driving hole on property.
HOLE_07
P5 · 558Y
Reachable par-5
Best birdie opportunity on the course. Two-putt birdie is the baseline. Eagle chance for bombers.
// 01.3QUAIL HOLLOW WINNER SG DECOMPOSITION
PGA_TOUR_ARCHIVE| YEAR | WINNER | SCORE | OTT | APP | ARG | PUTT | T2G |
|---|
| 2023 | Wyndham Clark | -11 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 5 | 4 |
| 2022 | Max Homa | -8 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| 2021 | Rory McIlroy | -10 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 2 |
| 2019 | Max Homa | -15 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 5 |
| 2018 | Jason Day | -12 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2015 | Rory McIlroy | -21 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 14 | 1 |
> PATTERNEvery Quail Hollow winner since 2015 ranked top-18 in SG:OTT for the week. Five of six finished top-14 in SG:APP. The Green Mile — holes 16, 17, 18 — functions as a four-stroke swing on Sunday. Scrambling matters: both Homa wins came with top-2 weekly SG:ARG. The stable signal is driving distance plus approach precision.
// 02_WEATHER_INTELLIGENCE
// 02.1CHARLOTTE · WEATHER FORECAST
KEVIN_ROTHWe're gearing up for the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow, and right out of the gate we've got some weather concerns.
Thursday
RAIN_HEAVY · AM_DELAY
Heavy rain before sunrise will leave us with a soggy and slow course, and some of that rain could linger into the early morning tee times as well. We may get off to a late start due to rain in the area. Winds are 5-10mph sustained, and when rain is around some stronger gusts are possible, but it's more likely that if there's rain, there's no one golfing anyways. The rain should clear by mid-morning. In the afternoon winds hold fairly steady in the 5-10mph range, but another round of showers/storms is possible in the mid-to-late afternoon. Those storms could also cause a delay, and possibly kick up winds briefly. Overall, winds are less of an issue Thursday, and rain is the key concern.
The rain is gone, and the wind is light. Winds should hold around 5mph all day, maybe a tick under than in the morning and a tick above it in the afternoon, but there are no real wind or rain concerns all day.
Saturday
WIND_BUILD · PM_GUSTS
Winds start light, around 5mph, and will steadily build to an afternoon with 10mph sustained winds and gusts around 15mph. Morning golf is better, but the afternoon isn't too shabby either.
Sunday
WIND_HIGH · RAIN_RISK
Both the wind and the rain chances climb through the day. We'll start with winds in the 5mph range, be up around 10mph by the late morning, and will likely hold 10-15mph for the afternoon (gusts of 20mph). Rain chances similarly are gradually building, and by the afternoon we'll need to monitor for showers and storms, and the potential for more rain-induced delays.
// OVERALL_READ
I don't think there's a clear "right answer" as far as choosing AM/PM waves. Winds aren't a major issue at any point in the first couple of days. My gut feeling is that Thursday morning the wet course could take away some distance off the tee, while improving approach shots and putting.
— @KEVINROTHWX
// 03_COURSE_FIT_PROFILE
// 03.1CADDIE · CATEGORY WEIGHTING
LIVE_MODELDerived from historical winner SG decomposition plus field-wide scoring patterns at long, OTT-dominant Bermuda venues. Every CADDIE projection for the Truist Championship is filtered through this weighting before salary and ownership adjustments are applied.
NODE_01SG:OTT
DRIVING_DISTANCE
Max weight. 7,538 yards with five par 4s over 450 yards.
32%
NODE_02SG:APP
APPROACH_PRECISION
Green Mile demands iron precision from 175–225 yards.
29%
NODE_03SG:ARG
SCRAMBLING
Thick Bermuda rough. Both Homa wins = top-2 ARG.
15%
NODE_04SG:PUTT
BERMUDA_OVERSEEDED
Bermuda greens overseeded with rye. Grain matters in PM.
14%
NODE_05PAR4
PAR4_SCORING
11 par 4s compose the backbone. Birdie rate on 450+ separates.
10%
// 03.2WINNING ARCHETYPE · FIELD FILTER
> POWER_DRIVER310+ carry required. Every winner since 2018 was top-18 OTT. Distance creates approach advantages the Green Mile amplifies.
> IRON_SPECIALISTApproaches from 175–225 yards into elevated, Bermuda-framed greens. The closing stretch concentrates this demand.
> GREEN_MILE_SURVIVORHoles 16–18 play as a 4-stroke swing. Playing the Green Mile at even par on Sunday wins tournaments.
> BERMUDA_COMFORTABLEOverseeded Bermuda greens with afternoon grain. Morning reads differ from PM. Chronic bermuda avoiders lose ground all four rounds.
> PAR4_MACHINE11 par 4s, five over 450 yards. Par-4 birdie rate directly predicts finish position at this venue.
// 04_CASH_TARGETS
// 04.0CASH GAME · 4 TARGETS
FLOOR_FIRSTNO_CUT_SIGNATURE
Four-round consistency is disproportionately valuable in no-cut formats. McIlroy anchors the top with the deepest course-history advantage in the field. Young is the raw-talent mirror — identical baseline, better putting. Fitzpatrick brings the field's best leverage ratio among top salaries. Si Woo Kim unlocks the build at sub-$9.5K with elite SG:APP.
// ANCHORRory McIlroy
DK $11,700FPPG 86.8OWN 32.9%
Three wins at Quail Hollow — the most by any active player at any single non-major venue. CADDIE's course-specific adjustments tell the full story: driving distance adjustment +0.222 (highest in field), course history adjustment +0.356 (highest in field), total fit adjustment +0.198 (highest in field). His final prediction of +2.622 strokes gained per round is the best number on the board by a full third of a stroke over Cameron Young. SG:OTT +0.93 is 2nd in the field. Driving distance +20.3 yards above Tour average leads the field.
> FLOORThree wins on property. Highest final prediction in the field. CADDIE's combined fit + history adjustment (+0.554) is nearly double the next-closest player.
> RISKOwnership at 32.88% is the highest on the board. A cold Thursday in soggy conditions forces correlation pain with a third of the field. SG:PUTT +0.34 is adequate, not dominant.
// COURSE_FITCameron Young
DK $10,100FPPG 82.6OWN 28.6%
The highest win probability in the field at 8.23% — higher than McIlroy despite the course-history gap. Baseline prediction +2.081 is nearly identical to McIlroy's +2.096, meaning raw talent grades dead even. The difference is McIlroy's massive history bump. SG:PUTT +0.48 is 3rd in the field and substantially above McIlroy's +0.34 — on Bermuda greens where grain matters, putting quality is the tiebreaker between equivalent ball-strikers. At $10,100 he saves $1,600 versus McIlroy at a higher win probability.
> FLOORHighest win probability in the field. T10 projection (41.8%) leads all players. T20 floor (61.6%) is the strongest on the board. 8.17 points per $1K beats McIlroy's efficiency.
> RISKOwnership at 28.62%. No Quail Hollow course history (adjustment +0.008). If course-specific knowledge matters in Sunday's deteriorating conditions, the history gap versus McIlroy becomes structural.
// CASH_PIVOTMatt Fitzpatrick
DK $9,900FPPG 77.0OWN 18.8%
Fourth-highest final prediction in the field (+2.015) at third-tier ownership (18.83%). Leverage of 0.28 is the second-best ratio among the top-6 salaries behind only Young. SG:APP +0.77 ranks 5th in the field. SG:ARG +0.38 ranks 3rd — the scrambling profile adds a dimension the other premium options lack. Driving accuracy +0.055 is 2nd highest in the field. His U.S. Open win (2022, Brookline) came on a similarly demanding par-4-heavy layout requiring precision over power.
> FLOOR4th-highest final prediction at 3rd-tier ownership. 55.9% T20 probability is comparable to Schauffele (57.8%) at $100 less salary and 11pp less ownership.
> RISKSG:OTT +0.54 is below the driving-distance threshold winners historically need. If par-4 birdie opportunities require 310+ off the tee on 16 and 18, his precision profile caps at T5 rather than contention.
// MID_VALUESi Woo Kim
DK $9,400FPPG 73.7OWN 14.5%
SG:APP +0.83 ranks 4th in the field. Leverage of 0.25 is the best among mid-salary options. Driving accuracy +0.098 leads the field — the most accurate driver in the field. At $9,400 he unlocks $2,300 in cap space versus McIlroy while maintaining a 50.4% T20 floor. The approach profile maps to exactly what Quail Hollow demands: precision iron play from 175–225 yards into elevated Bermuda greens.
> FLOOR73.67 FPPG at $9,400 — 7.84 pts per $1K. 50.4% T20 floor. 4th in SG:APP. Sub-15% ownership leaves meaningful differentiation.
> RISKSG:PUTT -0.03 is the worst putting grade among cash targets. On Bermuda greens where afternoon grain compounds, his approach advantage can't fully convert without a putter reversion. Pair with a putting-positive fill.
// CONSTRUCTION_NOTES
McIlroy + Kim core ($21,100) leaves $28,900 across four fills. Target: Lee ($8,300) and Hojgaard ($7,800) in the mid-range. Pendrith ($6,600) and Hughes ($6,200) as floor fills — builds to exactly $50,000. Thursday rain compresses scoring — prioritize floor over ceiling in cash.
// 05_GPP_TARGETS
// 05.0GPP · LEVERAGE TARGETS
OWNERSHIP_ADJLEVERAGE_MAX
Leverage = WIN% ÷ OWN%. Scores above 0.25 = projection outruns chalk. Below 0.15 = correctly-priced or overowned. McIlroy projects at 32.88% — the field's highest chalk cost. Schauffele at 30.15% is the most overowned player on the board relative to his projection. Build around McIlroy or against him. Never in between.
LEV · FITZPATRICK
0.28
W 5.3% · O 18.8%
LEV · KIM
0.25
W 3.7% · O 14.5%
LEV · MATSUYAMA
0.23
W 2.3% · O 9.8%
LEV · LEE
0.22
W 2.5% · O 11.2%
// LEVERAGE_MAXHideki Matsuyama
DK $8,800FPPG 70.7OWN 9.8%
LEVERAGE = WIN% ÷ OWN% = 0.23
SG:ARG +0.38 is 2nd in the field. The Green Mile closing stretch is where scrambling converts to strokes — Matsuyama's ability to save par from Bermuda rough around elevated greens is precisely the skill the final four holes demand. SG:APP +0.69 ranks 7th, providing iron quality to pair with scrambling depth. Course history adjustment +0.101 — he has documented results at this venue. At $8,800 and sub-10% ownership, CADDIE's T10 probability (21.6%) creates a window that the market's lukewarm pricing leaves open.
> FLOOR2nd in SG:ARG. 7th in SG:APP. Course history positive. Sub-10% ownership at $8,800.
> RISKSG:OTT +0.02 is effectively zero — he generates no driving advantage on a course where CADDIE assigns maximum OTT weight. If par-4 birdie opportunities require 310+ carry, his ceiling compresses.
// WIN%_LEVERAGEMin Woo Lee
DK $8,300FPPG 72.0OWN 11.2%
LEVERAGE = WIN% ÷ OWN% = 0.22
Driving distance +13.3 yards above Tour average is 3rd longest in the field — the power profile Quail Hollow demands. Course fit adjustment +0.128 is 7th highest, driven entirely by the driving distance adjustment (+0.146). At $8,300 and 11.22% ownership, the value efficiency (8.68 points per $1K) is the best in the mid-range. SG:PUTT +0.33 on Bermuda greens adds a dimension most power players lack. DK T10 at +345 is the only positive CADDIE edge on the entire DraftKings board this week.
> FLOOR3rd-longest driver. 8.68 VAL/$1K is the most efficient in the mid-range. 41.4% T20 floor. Thursday AM wave — rain-softened greens help his aerial approach.
> RISKSG:APP +0.26 is below the field average for legitimate contenders. Power without approach precision creates boom-bust variance.
// MID_LEVERAGENicolai Hojgaard
DK $7,800FPPG 70.8OWN 10.6%
LEVERAGE = WIN% ÷ OWN% = 0.17
Course fit adjustment +0.159 is the second-highest in the entire field — behind only McIlroy. Driving distance adjustment +0.179 confirms the model sees his power profile as a structural advantage at Quail Hollow. Final prediction +1.341 from a baseline of +1.028 — the +0.313 uplift is the 4th-largest course-fit lift on the board. At $7,800 and 10.56% ownership, the value ratio (9.08 points per $1K) is the best on the entire slate.
> FLOOR2nd-highest course fit adjustment in the field. Best VAL/$1K on the board at 9.08. 35.8% T20 floor at $7,800 unlocks premium construction.
> RISKNo Quail Hollow course history (history adjustment -0.001). The fit is modeled, not proven. SG:ARG +0.01 is essentially zero — no scrambling safety net on the Green Mile.
// CHALK_ARBITRAGEMatt Fitzpatrick
DK $9,900FPPG 77.0OWN 18.8%
LEVERAGE = WIN% ÷ OWN% = 0.28
Top-5 projection at third-tier ownership. The leverage play disguised as a normal salary roster slot.
> FLOOR18.83% ownership for a player with the 4th-highest final prediction is artificially suppressed — the market underweights approach + scrambling because his driving distance doesn't match the 'bomber at Quail Hollow' narrative. Paired with McIlroy in Thursday AM wave (10:05 tee) — both benefit from rain-softened greens.
> RISKIf driver misfires on 16 and 18 on Sunday with 15mph wind, the scrambling profile can only save par — it can't manufacture birdies.
// CONSTRUCTION_NOTES
Two viable builds. (1) McILROY_ON: Absorb 32.88% chalk. Differentiate everywhere else — Matsuyama, Lee, Hojgaard replace the narrative traps (Scott, Gotterup, Fowler). Avoid Schauffele ($10,000 at 30.15% — the most overowned player on the board). McIlroy + Kim + Lee + Hojgaard ($37,200) leaves $12,800 for two fills at $6,400 avg. (2) McILROY_OFF: Build Young + Fitzpatrick top ($20,000). Matsuyama + Lee mid ($17,100). Hojgaard + fill ($12,900). Higher ceiling, lower correlation — but McIlroy's course history creates a floor the off-build sacrifices. Commit fully.
// 06_BETTING_TICKET
// 06.0$160 BANKROLL · 6 TICKETS + 1 PARLAY
DK_SPORTSBOOK> EDGE_RULEEdge = CADDIE probability − DK implied probability, in percentage points. STRONG ≥ +5pp · EDGE ≥ +2pp · THIN ≥ 0pp · MARKET_SIDE< 0. Stake sized by edge magnitude with volatility cap on outrights.
// OUTRIGHT_01OUTRIGHTCameron Young
ODDS +930DK_VERIFIED
> RATIONALEBack-to-back winners happen roughly once every 18 months on Tour. The market has not priced Young out — +930 implies 9.7% and CADDIE has him at 8.23%, the highest win probability in the field. The honest read: this is a -1.5pp market-side bet, which means DK has him correctly priced. But correctly priced at the highest CADDIE win probability on the board is still the best outright ticket available.
The structural case: Young's raw baseline (+2.081) is statistically identical to McIlroy's (+2.096). The difference is that McIlroy gets priced at +600 because the market loads four wins and a course record onto his number. Young gets +930 because he won somewhere else last week. SG:PUTT +0.48 on Bermuda greens is the real edge the market hasn't absorbed — it is the margin that decides close tournaments at Quail Hollow.
If you want to fade the back-to-back, the alternative is McIlroy at +600. Four wins here. Strongest course-fit adjustment in the field (+0.198). The Green Mile execution history is unmatched. At +600 the market has him correctly priced too — but correctly priced at a venue where he owns the course record and has birdioed 18 under final-round pressure four times is a different kind of correct. Small stakes on both is the CADDIE recommendation. Young at $15, McIlroy at $10. Total outright exposure: $25.
// OUTRIGHT_02OUTRIGHTRory McIlroy
ODDS +600DK_VERIFIED
> RATIONALEThe alternative outright if you want to fade the back-to-back. Four wins at Quail Hollow. Course record holder. Strongest course-fit adjustment in the entire field (+0.198). SG:OTT field leader entering this week. The market prices him at +600 because the course-history premium is already baked in — this is not a mispricing, it is the market being right. But being right at a venue where McIlroy has birdioed 18 under final-round pressure four times is a different calculation. Paired with Young at $15, total outright exposure is $25 across the two strongest profiles on the board.
// T10_01TOP 10Min Woo Lee
ODDS +345DK_VERIFIED
> RATIONALEThe only positive CADDIE edge on the entire DraftKings board this week. CADDIE T10 (23.0%) against +345 implied (22.5%) is a thin +0.5pp edge — but in a market where every other line is market-side, the structural signal matters. 3rd-longest driver in the field at a venue where CADDIE assigns maximum OTT weight. Course fit adjustment +0.128 driven by driving distance. Thursday AM wave benefits from rain-softened greens. If the putter holds (+0.33 SG:PUTT on Bermuda), the T10 is live all four rounds.
// T10_02TOP 10Si Woo Kim
ODDS +220DK_VERIFIED
> RATIONALECADDIE T10 (29.7%) against +220 implied (31.2%) is -1.5pp market-side. This is a floor play, not an edge play: you're buying exposure to the player who ranks 4th in SG:APP in a field where approach play carries 29% of the CADDIE model weight. Driving accuracy leads the field. The approach + accuracy profile is precisely what Quail Hollow selects for. At +220 the downside is capped — Kim finishing 12th returns nothing, but the probability of T10 is essentially one-in-three.
// T20_01TOP 20Nicolai Hojgaard
ODDS +166DK_VERIFIED
> RATIONALECADDIE T20 (35.8%) against +166 implied (37.6%) is -1.8pp market-side. The case is structural: Hojgaard has the 2nd-highest course fit adjustment in the entire field behind only McIlroy (+0.159 vs +0.198). His driving distance adjustment (+0.179) is the signal the model trusts most at this venue. At $7,800 DFS salary, 9.08 VAL/$1K is the best efficiency on the board — betting the T20 captures the same insight the DFS model is already pricing in.
// T20_02SGP — BOTH TOP 20Young + Fitzpatrick
ODDS +145DK_CONSENSUS
> RATIONALEYoung T20 probability 61.6%. Fitzpatrick T20 probability 55.9%. Independent joint 34.4%. With positive course-fit correlation — both are approach-dominant profiles who benefit from rain-softened Thursday greens — the correlated joint probability rises to approximately 37.0%. The two highest-leverage players in the top-6 salaries, combined. If Quail Hollow plays as an iron test this week, their outcomes are positively correlated.
// PARLAY_012-LEG T10Young + Kim
+560COMBINED_FROM_LEGS
> Cameron YoungT10+108C 41.8%
> Si Woo KimT10+220C 29.7%
> RATIONALEThe two strongest approach profiles in the field at different salary tiers, combined. Young brings the putting ceiling (SG:PUTT +0.48) and raw talent floor (+2.081 baseline). Kim brings the approach concentration (SG:APP +0.83, 4th in field) and driving accuracy (field leader). Joint CADDIE probability (12.4%) trails parlay implied (15.2%) by -2.8pp — a market-side parlay earning its place through asymmetric payoff at $168 return on a $30 stake.
// TICKET_SUMMARY
$15Young outright @ +930 — highest win probability, structural play$10McIlroy outright @ +600 — four wins, course record, fade the back-to-back$30Lee T10 @ +345 — only positive CADDIE edge on the DK board$25Kim T10 @ +220 — approach profile floor play, 4th in SG:APP$25Hojgaard T20 @ +166 — 2nd-highest course fit in the field$25Young + Fitzpatrick SGP both T20 @ +145 — correlated iron profiles$30Parlay Young + Kim T10 @ +560 — asymmetric payoff, approach ceiling
TOTAL_DEPLOYED$160 · 100.0%
// DK odds drift before posted tee times — verify before placing. All projections are model-derived and should not be interpreted as a guarantee of outcome. Wager responsibly.
// POWERED_BY_CADDIE
MODEL · Aether pre-tournament ensemble · 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DATA · CADDIE pre-tournament projections (site=draftkings)
MARKET · DraftKings Sportsbook
WEATHER · Kevin Roth · @KevinRothWx
ARCLINE_ANALYTICS · arclineanalytics.com · DraftKings exclusively · For entertainment purposes.